Passing out candy and winning bets. That is literally the plan for tonight.
Here are my favorite DraftKings Sportsbook plays for Game 3 of 2022 World Series.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Let’s just call this game what it is. It’s an extended bullpen game for the Phillies. Noah Syndergaard is making the start for the Phillies but I cannot imagine he’s going deep into this game. Sure, he’s made one start and three appearances overall but this is someone who has only logged a total of 5 1⁄3 innings in those games. In his lone start against the Braves during the Divisional Series, Syndergaard only threw 30 pitches before turning to the bullpen. We also won’t be seeing Ranger Suarez, who is expected to make the start in Game 4.
With that in mind, this feels like a great spot to back the Astros, who have the clear pitching advantage. Lance McCullers will be making his third postseason start and he’s been fantastic against the Mariners and Yankees. He’s thrown 11 innings allowing three runs on 10 hits and 13 strikeouts. He’s a groundball pitcher who throws a ton of breaking pitches, with 50% of the time being a slider or curveball. He also lives near the bottom of the strike zone with those pitches, which helps limit the home runs. Combined, the Phillies hit just .223 as a team against both pitches. With the Phillies taking on the bulk of innings, the Astros should take the series lead after tonight.
The Astros have been hitting for plenty of pop during the playoffs. With only nine games logged, they’ve already clubbed 15 home run. Likewise, the Phillies have struggled to keep the ball in the park, with 15 home runs allowed through 11 games. With the move to a more friendly Citizens Bank Park, we could easily see that number rise beginning tonight. The Astros have been a power hitting club all throughout the season and ended the year tied eighth in home runs hit on the road.
As mentioned, I’m not expecting Syndergaard isn’t going to be in this game long, so we could see a number of arms trotting out of the Phillies bullpen tonight. At home, the Phillies pitching staff had a 1.1 HR/9 during the regular season. While it’s not a huge number, this Astros lineup is so dangerous when it comes to the log ball. I like this play at +135 odds.
I’m surprised you’re getting this prop at even money. This is a number that McCullers has gone over in seven of the nine total games pitched by him this season. He’s gone over it in both postseason starts against the Mariners and Yankees. As mentioned, the Phillies weren’t a strong club against the slider and curveball and had a 33% K% against those pitches. They’ve also been a generous club with providing strikeout upside, as they’re striking out an average of nine times per game this postseason. I think this will move off of being a plus money bet as the day goes on, so I would get on this sooner rather than later.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.