Another MNF divisional battle. This one has interesting numbers surrounding it. Let’s get into some of them while assessing how to best approach the DraftKings Sportsbook plays for this game.
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Samuel thrived vs. the Rams last season, and that’s pretty much been the case throughout his career. In six regular season meetings, Samuel has reel in 33 of his 41 targets vs. L.A. He’s averaged 13.33 yards per reception while also accruing 104 yards on 18 rushing attempts. If you’re looking for a yardage prop play, I prefer the over on the rushing (30.5 -115) with Jimmy Garoppolo under center.
Still, Samuel’s anytime TD scorer prop stands out most, especially at plus-money. Including San Fran’s playoff meeting vs. the Rams last season, Samuel has scored a touchdown in five of the seven games he’s played L.A.
Another trend of note: Samuel scored a touchdown in 11 of his 16 games played last season. The longest stretch of games he went without a touchdown was two, which is the same scenario he walks into Monday. The second time he went back-to-back games without a touchdown last season, the team to help Samuel snap that skid was the Rams.
It’s been mentioned plenty how Kyle Shanahan is 7-3 against Sean McVay’s Rams, but San Francisco being favored feels odd after what happened in Garoppolo’s return. What’s more surprising, though, is the movement surrounding the spread.
The 49ers were 1.5 favorites on Sunday. They’re now favored by two points. Despite the Rams getting a little extra help, San Francisco has seen more money come their way. L.A. is still getting a larger percentage of the ATS bets (74%), but the sharps are much more in on San Fran covering (26% of the bets and 38% of the handle).
With the moneyline payout still being a solid number, I’d rather go there to get some wiggle room. But if you’re looking to attack the spread, San Fran is my play.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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