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MLB Picks for October 21: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Garion Thorne gives his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday’s MLB NLCS betting card.

We keep rolling along in the playoffs. After a 2-0 night for Game 2 of the ALCS, our record on article plays for the postseason stands at 8-2. Hopefully the good times continue with Game 3 of the NLCS on tap tonight in Philadelphia.

Here’s a pair of bets on consider.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies

Padres ML (-120)

This line has been moving the past 24 hours, with the Padres initially opening as underdogs. Still, for as tempting as a home dog in the playoffs is, I’ll roll with the team from San Diego. For me, this all comes down to the pitching matchup. For as eager as I’ve been to back the Phillies with either Zack Wheeler or Aaron Nola on the mound, I’m less inclined to put my faith in Ranger Suarez. It’s not that Suarez has been awful in 2022, he’s just been underwhelming. In particular, walks have been an issue. The lefty posted an 8.9% walk rate and a paltry 2.1 K/BB ratio over his final 11 appearances of the regular season, then proceeded to walk five batters in just 3.1 innings in his outing in the NLDS.

The Padres are a lineup that’s more than happy to take their free passes, too. San Diego finished the season fifth in walk rate (9.3%) and with the sixth-lowest chase rate in the majors (30.4%). The Padres also have the bats to make Suarez pay with men on base, as the team was better against LHPs than RHPs throughout 2022. Combine all that offensive potential with the presence of Joe Musgrove, and I think San Diego takes the series lead on Friday evening.

Manny Machado Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135)

One of the aforementioned bats that will make Suarez pay is Machado, who has been playing MVP caliber baseball the past six months. As such, it’s a little surprising to see this prop with such long odds. Across his first 40 plate appearances in the postseason, Machado is slashing .306/.375/.639 with six extra-base hits and a 185 wRC+. For his career, Machado’s always hit southpaws well, and that continued in 2022 with a team-best .371 xwOBA within the split. As long as Suarez don’t walk him every time he comes to the dish, I think the All-Star gets this done quickly.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.