We took our first couple of losses during the postseason last Friday, yet we still sit at a very respectable 6-2 on article plays for the MLB playoffs as a whole. Tonight, there’s only one contest to break down: Game 2 of the ALCS between the Yankees and the Astros.
Where can we find an edge? Here are a couple bets I like.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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New York Yankees at Houston Astros
Luis Severino Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)
While this prop doesn’t seem overly difficult to clear from Severino’s perspective — the RHP has registered at least five strikeouts in 11 of his last 15 appearances including the playoffs — this line is heavily impacted by the Astros. Houston owned the second-lowest strikeout rate in baseball during the regular season (19.5%) and we’re on the heels of a 17-to-2 strikeout discrepancy in Game 1. Few teams in the league are as talented when it comes to making not just contact, but quality contact.
Still, Severino and Jameson Taillon are two very different types of pitchers. I wouldn’t be so quick to hold the latter’s inadequacies against the former. Severino struck out 112 opponents in his 102.0 innings of work throughout the regular season. His 12.3% swinging strike rate was bordering on elite. The 28-year-old has proven time and time again that he can induce whiffs — particularly when opposed by a right-handed bat. Severino faced 231 RHBs in 2022 and managed a massive 33.8% strikeout rate within the split. It helps when you have two pitches (slider and cutter) with a whiff rate above 40%. The Astros only have two left-handed hitters on their ALCS roster. It’s going to be wave after wave of righties for the Yankees’ Game 2 starter.
Astros to Bat Bottom 9th: No (+100)
This is an insane prop. While I completely understand that it’s not exactly the same bet as Houston on the moneyline, it’s like 95% there at a massive discount. The Astros are 41-15 in their last 61 home games. I’ll assume they finished a majority of those off in the top of the ninth inning. Houston is also 5-0 the last five times its invited New York into Minute Maid Park. Right now, the Astros own this matchup.
That could easily change on Thursday evening. Framber Valdez looked shaky down the stretch of the regular season and the Yankees posted a 119 wRC+ against LHPs in 2022. However, Houston won Game 1 with its four best hitters — Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker — going a combined 0-for-12. I don’t think that happens on back-to-back days. Look for the heart of the Astros’ lineup to make some noise.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.