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MLB Picks for October 13: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Garion Thorne gives his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Thursday’s MLB ALDS betting card.

We crushed the Wild Card round, with all three plus-money article plays hitting last week, putting our record for the playoffs at, well, 3-0. Still, you don’t need me to tell you gambling is ever that easy. I’m sure bad beats are on the horizon, as well as other obstacles — things like inclement weather, for example.

With heavy rain expected tonight in New York, this article will only be focusing on this afternoon’s contest between the Astros and the Mariners.

It is what it is. Let’s dive into my favorite bets.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros

Luis Castillo Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (+105)

Castillo hasn’t always been the most efficient pitcher in the world, though it should be noted he’s shown better control in 2022 than he has in some time. To wit, the right-hander’s 7.3% walk rate during the regular season was his lowest mark since all the way back in 2018. Still, Castillo is clearly Seattle’s ace. The prospect capital he was traded for and the amount of decimal places on the contract extension he signed when he got to the Mariners prove that. This are the exact type of situtation Castillo was brought in to excel in. Seattle needs to win on Thursday, and it needs its best starter to work deep.

It’s certainly not like getting 18 outs is foreign to Castillo. He was able to register at least six innings of work in 12 of his final 16 appearances of the season, and while playoff games are a different animal, he breezed through 7.1 innings of work last Friday against the Blue Jays. Come to think of it, he was a different animal that day. The 29-year-old sat at 98.6 mph on his fastball versus Toronto, up significantly from his 97.1 mph average from April-to-September. Five times, he touched 100 mph, with three other fastballs clocking in at 99.9 mph. Velocity isn’t everything, but it was obvious to anyone watching that Castillo was on another level. If that carries over to the ALDS, I don’t think the veteran will have much issue clearing this prop.

Framber Valdez Over 1.5 Walks (-135)

Let’s get this out of the way off the top: Valdez is a stud. However, if the left-hander does have one glaring fault, it’s that he’ll occasionally lose the strike zone. For his career, Valdez owns a 9.6% walk rate — a number that jumps to 9.9% in the 43.2 innings he’s worked in the playoffs, where you might be nibbling on the corners just a little bit more. Now, Valdez generally makes up for these free passes with an immediate ground ball double play, but for our purposes, none of that matters.

Valdez walked multiple opponents in 19 of his 31 starts in 2022. Shockingly, two of the 12 outings where he didn’t happened to come against the Mariners. I’ll go out on a limb and say that trends dies on Thursday. More than almost any team in the majors, Seattle loves a walk. Heck, one could make the case that it’s the driving force of their offensive attack. In particular, the Mariners have worked left-handed pitchers better than anyone else in baseball, posting a league-leading 10.7% walk rate within the split. They know how to wait for their pitch, and I’m sure that’s once again the game plan against Valdez.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.