MLB Picks for October 12: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

It looks like there’s some bad weather coming through Atlanta on Wednesday, so plan accordingly. There might be a bit of inclement weather in Los Angeles, too, but it does seem like it’ll have nearly the same impact.

With those notes in mind, here’s how I’m approaching both games via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

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Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Ronald Acuna over 1.5 total bases +120

Full-game bets are going to be tough for this one with the weather — although, I do like the Braves’ (-145) chances to bounce back. Regardless of that, Acuna’s total bases prop jumps out in Game 2.

While Atlanta came up just shy in their comeback effort, Acuna more than did his part in Game 1. He’ll get a tough matchup against Zack Wheeler to start the game, but he’s also hit for quite a bit of power against the Philly right-hander. Six of the eight hits Acuna has in his 34 at-bats against Wheeler have gone for extra bases.

And while Acuna’s season-long numbers against righties aren’t much to look at, he’s posted good numbers since the start of September. His numbers against right-handed pitching look even better when you focus on games played in Atlanta, where he’s hitting .302 with a .233 ISO against them on the back of a 22.6% line-drive rate, 38.7% fly-ball rate and 35.5% hard-contact rate over the last 13 games.

Kyle Schwarber over 1.5 total bases +125

Despite Philadelphia’s success to start the postseason, Schwarber is 0-for-12 with five strikeouts. This slump can’t maintain. So, why not have that end against a pitcher he’s 0-for-8 against?

While Kyle Wright has punched out his share of left-handed hitters, the Atlanta right-hander only has a 20% strikeout rate against lefty bats since September 1. Despite his recent struggles, Scwarber has a .479 ISO against right-handed pitching since the first of September. That’s partially been due to his manageable strikeout rate (21.6%) and strong combination of fly balls (61.5%) and hard contact (38.5%).

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San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers

San Diego Padres +160

Aside from a July 2 hiccup, Yu Darvish absolutely carved up the Dodgers this season. Outside that one rough start, he held L.A. to two runs and 10 hits over 19 innings of work — with seven of those hits and both runs coming in the same outing. And for all their success against right-handed pitching throughout the year, the Dodgers have slowed up a bit against righties since September 1, posting a .165 team ISO — which dips down to .151 when you focus solely on home games during the span.

The Padres, on the other hand, have smoked left-handed pitching since the start of September. They’ve been even better in that regard on the road, posting a .276 ISO against a 14.6% strikeout rate within the split. Their success didn’t come against Clayton Kershaw, who they didn’t see in September while he went off on opposing lineups. He did give the Padres a hard time in his two starts against him throughout the year, but Kershaw isn’t above having a rough postseason outing. Plus, the L.A. bullpen is always suspect this time of year, regardless of how Dodgers relievers performed in Game 1.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is dk-nfriar) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.