The first week of bye weeks has arrived, but there is still plenty of NFL action on tap in Week 6, with the Commanders and Bears getting things started on Thursday Night Football. There are eight games kicking off at 1:00 p.m. ET in the early wave on Sunday, followed by three games in the late window — including a great rematch of last year’s playoff classic between the Bills and Chiefs. The Sunday and Monday primetime matchups are both divisional contests, as the Cowboys visit the Eagles on Sunday and the Chargers host the Broncos on Monday.
As you take a look at the matchups and get your betting cards ready on DraftKings Sportsbook, take a look at these trends against the spread and totals to help you make the right picks. The lines provided are as of Wednesday morning, and odds and lines are subject to change leading up to kickoff.
Here are some key definitions of acronyms that we’ll use throughout the article:
- SU: Straight Up
- ATS: Against the Spread
- O/U: Over/Under
Washington Commanders at Chicago Bears (-1; O/U 37)
Commanders ATS: 1-4
Commanders O/U: 2-3
Commanders average total game points: 43.6
Commanders as underdog: 0-3 SU/ 0-3 ATS
The Commanders are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings vs. the Bears, but they have dropped four straight ATS after their Week 1 win and are just 2-8 in their past 10 games overall. The total has gone under in five of Washington’s last seven games.
Bears ATS: 2-2-1
Bears O/U: 2-3
Bears average total game points: 38.4
Bears as favorite: 1-0 SU/0-0-1 ATS
After falling behind big early to the Vikings, the Bears came back and ended up with a cover in their six-point loss. Chicago is a perfect 2-0 at home this season, beating the 49ers and the Texans straight up. Those two games split the over/under, but the under is 21-8 in Chicago’s last 29 home games.
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons (+5.5; O/U 44.5)
49ers ATS: 3-2
49ers O/U: 1-4
49ers average total game points: 33.8
49ers as favorite: 3-2 SU/ 3-2 ATS
The 49ers hit the over for the first time this season in their win and cover vs. the Panthers. They are 8-2 ATS in their past 10 games and 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games. The under is 5-1 in the 49ers’ last six road games and 7-1 in their last eight games overall.
Falcons ATS: 5-0
Falcons O/U: 3-2
Falcons average total game points: 48
Falcons as underdog: 2-3 SU/5-0 ATS
The Falcons remained undefeated ATS and almost came all the way back vs. the Buccaneers but had to settle for another cover. They’re the underdog for the sixth straight week. The over is 4-2 in their last six games, but the under is 28-10 in Atlanta’s last 38 games against a team with a winning record.
New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns (-2.5; O/U 42.5)
Patriots ATS: 2-2-1
Patriots O/U: 2-3
Patriots average total game points: 40.2
Patriots as underdog: 0-3 SU/ 1-2 ATS
The Patriots' defense stood strong as they shut out the Lions on Sunday to pick up a win behind Bailey Zappe. The rookie QB could get another start depending on the uncertain status of Mac Jones. The Patriots are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in their past nine meetings with the Browns but are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road games. The under is 14-2 in New England's last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record and 11-5 in the Patriots’ last 16 road games overall.
Browns ATS: 2-3
Browns O/U: 4-1
Browns average total game points: 51.6
Browns as favorite: 1-2 SU/1-2 ATS
The Browns led early but ultimately fell to the Chargers in Week 5, hitting the over for the fourth time in five games. This will be the first time they are favored vs. the Patriots since 10 matchups ago, but they have only gone 2-5 ATS in their last seven games and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games at home.
New York Jets at Green Bay Packers (-7; O/U 46)
Jets ATS: 3-2
Jets O/U: 3-2
Jets average total game points: 46.8
Jets as underdog: 3-2 SU/3-2 ATS
The Jets steamrolled the Dolphins last week to pick up their third SU win in four games. The over has hit in each of those three wins and is 6-1 in the Jets’ last seven games against a team with a winning record and 13-6 in their last 19 overall.
Packers ATS: 2-3
Packers O/U: 2-3
Packers average total game points: 38.6
Packers as favorite: 2-1 SU/1-2 ATS
The Packers took a brutal loss in London at the hands of one New York team and now return home to face the other as they welcome the Jets. Green Bay was shaky in its last home game vs. the Patriots, as well, and is just 2-5 ATS in the last seven games. However, they are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU loss. The under is 4-2 in Green Bay’s last six games and 4-1 in the last five games after a Packers’ SU loss.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5; O/U 42)
Jaguars ATS: 2-3
Jaguars O/U: 3-2
Jaguars average total game points: 38.2
Jaguars as underdog: 2-2 SU/2-2 ATS
After showing early-season improvement, the Jaguars came tumbling back to earth with a tough loss at home to Houston, in which they managed only six points. Each of their last four meetings with the Colts has gone under the total, as well. The good news for Jacksonville is the underdog is 6-0 ATS in the past six matchups between these divisional foes, and the Jaguars are 13-2-1 ATS in the 16 most recent head-to-head meetings.
Colts ATS: 2-3
Colts O/U: 0-5
Colts average total game points: 32.6
Colts as favorite: 0-2-1 SU/0-3 ATS
It wasn’t pretty, but the Colts eked out a win last Thursday night vs. the Broncos. Maybe the extra prep time can help them find some offense after the under has hit in five straight contests to start the season. The Colts are 0-4 ATS in their last four divisional games but are 8-1 SU in their last nine home games vs. the Jaguars.
Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins (+3; O/U 45)
Vikings ATS: 1-4
Vikings O/U: 3-2
Vikings average total game points: 43.4
Vikings as favorite: 4-0 SU/1-3 ATS
The Vikings won but didn’t cover for the third time in four games as favorites this season in their close win vs. the Bears. Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last six games vs. the Dolphins but only 5-15 SU in its last 20 games vs. the AFC East. After going under the first two weeks of the season, the total has gone over in three straight Vikings’ games in 10 of their past 13.
Dolphins ATS: 3-2
Dolphins O/U: 2-3
Dolphins average total game points: 49.2
Dolphins as underdog: 2-1 SU/2-1 ATS
The big question for the Dolphins is who will play QB after head injuries to both Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater. Miami is 8-0 SU in its last eight home games and 11-3 SU/10-4 ATS in their 14 most recent games, dating back to last season. But, can that success continue if they have to turn to seventh-round rookie Skylar Thompson again this week?
Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints (+2; O/U 45)
Bengals ATS: 3-2
Bengals O/U: 0-5
Bengals average total game points: 39.4
Bengals as favorite: 2-2 SU/2-2 ATS
The Bengals lost a close divisional game last week to the Ravens on Sunday Night Football and continued their run of five straight unders to begin the season. They did manage to cover vs. Baltimore and are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 overall and 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games. Cincinnati is also 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with the Saints, although they were the underdog in each of those contests.
Saints ATS: 2-3
Saints O/U: 3-2
Saints average total game points: 48.6
Saints as underdog: 0-2 SU/1-1 ATS
The Saints won a wild back-and-forth game vs. the Seahawks last week and covered for the first time as a favorite. They’re the underdog this week, though, against the reigning AFC Champion. Despite the high-scoring affair last week, the under is 6-1 in New Orleans’ last seven games on turf and 5-2 in the Saints’ last seven home games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers (+8; O/U 44)
Buccaneers ATS: 2-3
Buccaneers O/U: 1-4
Buccaneers average total game points: 37.2
Buccaneers as favorite: 3-2 SU/2-3 ATS
The Bucs held on to beat the Falcons but did not cover last week at home for their third straight loss ATS. They will again be heavily favored, though, on the road vs. the Steelers. Tampa is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games, and the under is 6-2 in its last eight games following an ATS loss.
Steelers ATS: 1-3-1
Steelers O/U: 2-3
Steelers average total game points: 41
Steelers as underdog: 1-3 SU/1-2-1 ATS
The Steelers were crushed by the Bills last week in Kenny Pickett’s first start and have gone 0-3-1 since their Week 1 win. The under is 5-1 in Pittsburgh’s last six home games and 26-10-1 in the Steelers’ last 37 games in October.
Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants (+5; O/U 45)
Ravens ATS: 2-2-1
Ravens O/U: 2-3
Ravens average total game points: 51
Ravens as favorite: 3-1 SU/2-2 ATS
Baltimore beat the Bengals on Sunday Night Football but didn’t cover, taking the ATS loss. The Ravens are 13-2 SU in their last 15 games against the NFC and 5-0 SU in their last five games against the NFC East. The under is 5-2 in Baltimore’s seven most recent games and 12-5 in its 17 most recent road games.
Giants ATS: 24-1
Giants O/U: 2-3
Giants average total game points: 39.2
Giants as underdog: 3-0 SU/3-0 ATS
Even after their big win vs. the Packers, the Giants are home underdogs vs. the Ravens. Since they have gone 3-0 both SU and ATS as the underdog this season, that may actually be a good thing for Brian Daboll’s Big Blue. The under is 12-4 in New York’s 16 most recent games and 7-1 in its eight most recent home games.
Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Rams (-10.5; O/U 40.5)
Panthers ATS: 1-4
Panthers O/U: 2-3
Panthers average total game points: 43
Panthers as underdog: 1-1 SU/1-1 ATS
The Panthers will have a new coach after Matt Rhule’s firing and a new QB with Baker Mayfield (ankle) sidelined, but we’ll have to see if Steve Wilks and P.J. Walker can help turn their season around. The recent trends aren’t good for the Panthers, who are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall and 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.
Rams ATS: 1-4
Rams O/U: 1-4
Rams average total game points: 39.2
Rams as favorite: 2-1 SU/1-2 ATS
The Rams took a tough loss to Dallas last week, but they are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games following a double-digit loss at home. The home team is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 matchups between the Rams and Panthers, and the favorite is 3-0-1 in their past four meetings. The under is 6-1 in the Rams' last seven games and 6-0 in their last six home games.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (+2.5; O/U 50.5)
Cardinals ATS: 3-2
Cardinals O/U: 1-3-1
Cardinals average total game points: 45.6
Cardinals as favorite: 0-0 SU/0-0 ATS
The Cardinals almost knocked off the Eagles at home but did manage to cover in a low-scoring contest. Only one of their games has gone over all season, and the under is 7-3 in their last 10 contests. The Cardinals have had success on the road lately, going 10-2 ATS in their last dozen road games
Seahawks ATS: 2-3
Seahawks O/U: 3-2
Seahawks average total game points: 56.2
Seahawks as underdog: 2-2 SU/2-2 ATS
Seattle has put up plenty of points in their last few games while letting Geno Smith cook, but they did lose a key piece of their offense with Rashaad Penny (leg) now done for the season. The Seahawks are only 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games vs. the Cardinals and 7-15 in their last 22 vs. the NFC. The over is 6-2 in Seattle’s last 8 games and 4-2 in its last six games at home.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5; O/U 54)
Bills ATS: 3-1-1
Bills O/U: 1-4
Bills average total game points: 42.6
Bills as favorite: 4-1 SU/3-1-1 ATS
The Bills have only hit the over one time this season despite their dynamic offense. Last week, the total went under since their defense allowed just three points in a 38-3 pounding of Pittsburgh. The Bills are 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 games but only 2-6 ATS in their last eight games vs. the Chiefs. The over is 4-2 in the past six head-to-head matchups between these teams and 5-1 in the past six meetings in Kansas City.
Chiefs ATS: 2-3
Chiefs O/U: 3-2
Chiefs average total game points: 56.8
Chiefs as underdog: 1-0 SU/1-0 ATS
The Chiefs will be on a short week after winning but failing to cover on Monday Night Football vs. the Raiders. Kansas City is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games against a team with a winning record and 10-1 SU in its last 11 games overall. The over is 10-3 in Kanas City’s last 13 games and 5-2 in its last seven home games.
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5; O/U 42.5)
Cowboys ATS: 4-1
Cowboys O/U: 1-4
Cowboys average total game points: 33
Cowboys as underdog: 3-1 SU/3-1 ATS
Dallas has relied on its outstanding defense to get through the four weeks since losing Dak Prescott in Week 1. The Cowboys have gone 4-0 SU and ATS during that span, with three of those four games going under the total. They have allowed under 20 points in every game this season and have improved to 20-7 ATS in their last 27 overall and 22-7 ATS in their last 29 divisional games. The under is 10-1-1 in Dallas’ last 12 games following a SU and ATS win and 6-1-1 in its last eight road games.
Eagles ATS: 3-2
Eagles O/U: 2-3
Eagles average total game points: 44.6
Eagles as favorite: 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS
The Eagles remained the only unbeaten team in the NFL by edging the Cardinals by three points, which wasn’t enough to cover. They have been favored in each of their five games this season and will face their toughest test to date in the Cowboys. The under is 4-2 in Philly’s last six games, but the over is 6-1 in its last seven home games.
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-5; O/U 45.5)
Broncos ATS: 1-4
Broncos O/U: 1-4
Broncos average total game points: 38.4
Broncos as underdog: 1-1 SU/1-1 ATS
The Broncos' offense has struggled in their 1-4 start and sunk to new lows in their 12-9 loss to the Colts on TNF. Denver is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games vs. the Chargers but 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road. The under is not only 4-1 in their five games this season, but it has also gone 5-0 in Denver’s last five Monday games, 5-0 in its last five road games against a team with a winning home record and 34-16-1 in its last 51 games against the AFC. The under is also 8-1 in the last nine head-to-head meetings between these two teams.
Chargers ATS: 4-1
Chargers O/U: 3-2
Chargers average total game points: 38.4
Chargers as favorite: 3-1 SU/3-1 ATS
The Bolts struck late but managed to rally past the Browns in Week 5. They are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 divisional games but only 1-6 SU in their last seven appearances on Monday Night Football. In good news for Chargers fans, the home team is 5-0 ATS in the past five head-to-head meetings between these division rivals.
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