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NFL Futures Outlook: Notable Market Movement Following Week 5 on DraftKings Sportsbook

Julian Edlow covers notable movement in the NFL futures market on DraftKings Sportsbook following the Week 5 games.

Los Angeles Rams v San Francisco 49ers Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

One of my favorite parts of betting throughout any sports season is that it’s not just about the given games on that day/week. With the growth of betting over the years, and the creative markets posted on DraftKings Sportsbook, we can keep betting the futures market throughout the duration of the season. With that in mind, this article will highlight some of the most notable movement within the futures market (whether it be team or player related) after each week of games. Here are some markets to keep an eye on following the Week 5 slate.

NFC West

This division has really been on the move, with the Niners shaping into the favorites to runaway with it. San Francisco opened +200 to win the NFC West, while the Rams sat at +150. But it has become evident over the last couple of weeks that the defending Super Bowl champs are not a very good team this season.

I backed the Niners at home over their division rivals on MNF in Week 4, and considered betting them for the division, but passed on +140 prior to the game. But what I’m really kicking myself over is not betting San Fran at -105 last week to win the division, having such an easy matchup against the Panthers this week. I felt Dallas had a good shot to beat the Rams with the mismatch of the defensive line versus offensive line, and that came to fruition.

Currently, the Rams find themselves +200, with the Cardinals and Seahawks on the outside looking in. The Niners are tough to lay -180 with, but it’s starting to feel like they could break this open. Assuming the Rams take their turn smashing the Panthers in Week 6, next week could be the time to bet the Niners if the price comes down.

NFC North

The Packers opened heavy -200 favorites in this division, but the odds swung significantly with the Vikings earning the Week 1 victory in a game they opened dogs and closed favorites. Over the previous two weeks, the Packers have dipped from -140 to -130 in the NFC North, with the Vikings slight dogs at +180 and +130.

Week 5 provided another large swing, much like Week 1. The Packers collapsed against the Giants in London, while the Vikings earned a divisional win over the Bears. Minnesota shifted to the -135 favorite with the Pack behind them at +130. Given the schedule, this one sets up to go back and forth all season.

AFC North

The Ravens and Bengals battled for first place in the division on Sunday night, with Baltimore coming out on top at home (although the Bengals covered). The Ravens opened +225 for the division with the Bengals +140, but we saw that number move significantly leading up to Week 1, with the Ravens the favorite.

Prior to Weeks 4 and 5, the Ravens still felt bet-able at -125/-120, but with this huge win in the AFC North, the price tag has shot up to -225. The Bengals feel like the only other reasonable option, now at +400. If you want to bet Cincy, now is probably the time.

If you want to bet Baltimore, you should likely wait and see if the Bengals can win a couple games when the Ravens slip up, hoping to get back in at an affordable price. With the way the Browns are crumbling in crunch time and the Steelers turning towards a rookie QB, I think we can comfortably write them off.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

More shifts atop the board here, which is becoming the week-to-week expectation for OROY. Dameon Pierce was +1000 prior to Week 4, but has broken out recently. Last week he sat +650, and after a 26-99-1 line in a road win in Jacksonville, Pierce has shifted to the +500 co-favorite on the board. Pierce will be on bye this week, so it’ll be interesting to see how his stock is affected by the performances of the rest of the rookies. Chris Olave got into the end zone for the second week in a row, which kept him at +500 as Pierce’s co-favorite.

While Kenny Pickett moved from +1500 to +1000 with the news he’d become the Steelers’ starting QB, a blowout loss in Buffalo kept him from making a huge splash in the market. Still, he moved up to +800, which speaks to how quickly a starting QB can pop in this market with a big game. Up next for Pickett is Tampa Bay, so maybe keep waiting out a better matchup to bet him prior to.

It was the week of the RB, though. Breece Hall, who opened +800, had a slow start to the season for the Jets. He was set at +1200 prior to Week 5, but a game with 197 combined yards and a touchdown in a win over the Dolphins slashed his price in half to +600.

I’m more curious about the situation in Seattle, as Rashad Penny went down with a serious injury in Week 5. Kenneth Walker opened +1200 as someone that bettors thought could be featured in Seattle, but that quickly changed. An injury early in the season, and limited role upon return, had Walker +5000 prior to the Week 5 games. He’s now +2000 after going for 8-88-1 in relief of Penny in New Orleans. Seattle’s offense is humming this season, and Walker is in line for a large role.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.