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Live coverage of odds and results for the 2022 Midterm Election

As the markets move up and down all day, we’ll chart who’s up and who’s down all day long in the 2022 Midterm Election.

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Pennsylvania Democratic Senate candidate John Fetterman and his wife, Gisele, walk into their polling place to cast their votes at the New Hope Baptist Church on November 8, 2022 in Braddock, Pennsylvania. Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images

Nov. 9, 7:15 a.m. Here’s the latest:

Right now at Polymarket Republicans are given an 87% chance by bettors to take over the House. That’s actually a lower price than what we saw before the election, so it’s a surprise that House control is still in question.

As for the Senate, that seems strongly in favor of Democrats. With five states outstanding, and the Democrats win in Pennsylvania being the only flip in the chamber, the Democrats will need to win two from the currently-undecided races in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Wisconsin. D’s look very strong in Arizona, while Georgia is heading to a runoff on December 5.

Nevada is truly close at this point, with most of the remaining vote favoring incumbent Catherine Cortez-Masto. She leads with .67 of the vote at Polymarket.

Alaska is also undecided, but one of two Republicans will win there between Kelly Tshibaka and incumbent Lisa Murkowski.

Democrats check in at .75 to win the Senate at Polymarket presently. and .87 at PredictIt.

For the Governors races, a late charge by Kari Lake puts her in the drivers seat in Arizona. She’s priced at .66 on Polymarket over Democrat Katie Hobbs, though Hobbs leads in the current count.

Tina Kotek looks likely to keep Oregon in Democratic hands, while Steve Sisolak is an underdog to keep his seat in Nevada to Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo. Kotek is at .96 on Polymarket, while Lombardo is at .86.

1:10 a.m. John Fetterman wins the Senate seat in Pennsylvania, and that pushes Democrats to .82 to maintain Senate control.

But the early vote also looks good for incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez-Masto in Nevada, as with 42% of the ballots counted, her 54-43 lead puts her at .88 on Polymarket.

The biggest surprise is probably the Arizona Governors race, where Katie Hobbs leads 56-44 with 50% counted, and that’s good enough to give her an .81 price on Polymarket as of now. She was under .20 at times on the same market earlier today.

12:05 a.m. Instead of a red wave, maybe it’s a blue hold??

Democrats are at .77 to hold the Senate, but what might be even more miraculous is that control of the House of Representatives is still in doubt. It’s at .18 for the Democrats as well, and we will likely be looking at days if not weeks to determine control of the lower chamber. It could come down to seats like D incumbent Katie Porter in California, and the last of those Orange County ballots might not be totaled until nearly December.

No votes have been counted in Nevada yet, but in Arizona Katie Hobbs has a 13-point lead with about half the vote tallied. She was a 5-to-1 shot to win earlier today, and now she’s .56 to win that seat.

It’s way too close in too many places to know final numbers, but it’s safe to say that Democrats across the country (except in Florida) have outperformed both the polls and the betting market expectations.

11:05 p.m. The Senate is up to .70 for Democrats at Polymarket, but the fact the Republicans are just at .83 to control the House of Representatives might be an even bigger surprise. There’s actually a (admittedly narrow) path for the blue team to keep the gavel in the lower chamber. But the fact it’s not called shows how strong a night it’s been for Democrats everywhere but Florida.

The biggest surprise so far might be Katie Hobbs, who was at .18 to win the Governor’s chair in Arizona against the Trump-endorsed Kari Lake entering trading today. Now Hobbs is the betting favorite, as she’s at .53 to win to .47 for the former Phoenix television anchor Lake.

10:30 p.m. Outside of Florida, it looks like Democrats are running a bit ahead of where they thought. And the first time in weeks, the odds have them ahead to keep control of the Senate.

Democrats controlling the Senate are at .69 at Polymarket, while .64 at PredictIt. It’s a shift from where they’ve been for weeks, as since the momentum from the Dobbs decision by the Supreme Court they’ve lost ground continually. But at the ballot box it appears they’ve been ahead of what the polls projected today.

9:55 p.m. John Fetterman is now the betting favorite to win Pennsylvania for the first time in months. He sits at .68 at Polymarket and .54 at PredictIt, far ahead of his numbers from earlier today.

Meanwhile in Georgia it’s razor thin, as Herschel Walker leads 49% to 48%, but there’s a lot of Fulton County (Atlanta) and those suburban counties out. Polymarket has moved that race from .50-.50 to .64-.36 favoring the Republican. But by the projections, it’s going to be super close.

And the polls in Nevada are about to close in five minutes, and any announced early vote in that state might be super-interesting. Remember: Almost three-quarters of the state lives in Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson, Summerlin)

9:20 p.m. It wasn’t like we weren’t going for several days (and potentially a month when Georgia is involved anyway), but don’t look for much clarity out of Nevada tonight. It’s a very heavy mail vote state, and the powerful culinary unions in the Las Vegas area have been telling their members to use dropboxes as much as possible today.

9:15 p.m. A lot of noise but not a lot of signal in these close races as of yet. Here are the latest numbers on the betting markets as of now. Georgia is still very close for the Senate, whereas for the Governor’s race it appears Republican Brian Kemp will be re-elected.

Ohio is another spot where things could get closer than expected for Republicans, as Tim Ryan appears to be outperforming the polls so far, but he’s got a tough hill to climb in a state that has continued to trend red for several cycles.

Election Odds Live Updates

Race FiveThirtyEight PredictIt D PredictIt R PolyMarket D PolyMarket R
Race FiveThirtyEight PredictIt D PredictIt R PolyMarket D PolyMarket R
House Majority 84% R .08 .94 .11 .89
Senate Majority 59% R .24 .80 .28 .72
AZ Sen 66% D .60 .40 .58 .42
GA Sen 63% R .35 .65 .38 .62
NC Sen 82% R .10 .90 .14 .86
NV Sen 51% R .27 .73 .27 .73
OH Sen 87% R .12 .88 .18 .82
PA Sen 57% R .56 .44 .56 .44
WI Sen 81% R .19 .81 .14 .86
AZ Gov 68% R .22 .80 .17 .83

8:25 p.m. The Senate is looking closer than ever, as North Carolina is becoming more of a race than expected. But the early numbers in Georgia show that the Senate might be looking good for the Democrats, and it’s forcing the markets to move.

Democrats are now at .35 to retain control of the Senate at Polymarket, which is up about seven points from where it was most of the day. Raphael Warnock checks in at .31 on the same market against Herschel Walker’s .69, while John Fetterman is at .41 to Mehmet Oz’s .59.

The vote counting in Georgia seems to be ahead of that in PA, so we might see more answers faster out of the South than the North.

Wisconsin is also starting to give the Democrats a bit of hope, as it’s ever-so-slightly ticking towards Mandela Barnes though polls are still open in the state. But are these trends enough to actually translate to winning races?

7:45 p.m. It looks like Raphael Warnock is outperforming Georgia’s Stacey Abrams by about 2% in early trading. A lot of that can likely attributed to the unpopularity of Herschel Walker, who has made multiple mistakes on the campaign trail while also being accused of paying for abortions that he opposes politically.

Right now at PredictIt, Raphael Warnock is at .45 with Walker at .61, but the Democratic challenger for Governor in Abrams is at just .03, with incumbent Republican Governor Brian Kemp at .98.

It’s a dead 50-50 at Polymarket between Warnock and Walker, but Kemp leads Abrams .98 to .02.

Update 7:10 p.m. While Tim Scott will return to the United States Senate from South Carolina, we knew that was coming. In the races below it seems that Wisconsin might be a bit of a lean for the Democrats, while PA has closed a bit towards John Fetterman as well, but Dr. Mehmet Oz remains the favorite in a state that could take days to count.

It’s widely expected the Democrat Josh Shapiro will defeat Doug Mastriano for Governor in the Keystone State however.

Election Odds 2022

Race FiveThirtyEight PredictIt D PredictIt R PolyMarket D PolyMarket R
Race FiveThirtyEight PredictIt D PredictIt R PolyMarket D PolyMarket R
House Majority 84% R .08 .94 .11 .89
Senate Majority 59% R .24 .80 .28 .72
AZ Sen 66% D .54 .48 .51 .49
FL Sen 95% R .02 .99 .01 .99
GA Sen 63% R .37 .67 .34 .66
NV Sen 51% R .28 .74 .24 .76
OH Sen 87% R .09 .94 .06 .94
PA Sen 57% R .45 .58 .44 .56
WI Sen 81% R .15 .88 .19 .81
AZ Gov 68% R .15 .85 .22 .78

Normally we cover sports around here, but some of the biggest betting of 2022 will take place on the outcome of the American midterm elections in 2022, with dozens of House, Senate, and Governors seats being contested across the country

We’ll be here all day, night, and probably a few days after documenting the ups-and-downs of the markets as people both in the United States and across the world place their bets on who will be the elected officials from across the country. Right now Republicans are favored slightly to take control of the United States Senate, and heavily favored to be elected in the House of Representatives.

The pattern is consistent: If you believe the polls, there’s value in betting on Democrats. The numbers simply aren’t aligned between what the polls believe will happen and what the betting markets say.

It’s going to be a long, long evening no matter the results, and we’ll see what happens from race to race as the evening continues.

DraftKings Sportsbook did have odds available in the Canadian province of Ontario up until November 7, but those have been shuttered as no live betting is available, and there are no sportsbooks with availability for betting across the United States. So we’ll use sites such as PredictIt and the Iowa Electronic Markets instead where Americans can legally trade on elections, but only for lower limits per user.

The crypto exchange Polymarket will be another resource, as well as London-based bookmaker BetFair, which isn’t open to customers based in the USA.

Here are the latest numbers from some key races across the country, and we’ll update this chart all night (and morning) long.