DraftKings contributors Garion Thorne and Nick Friar join The Sweat to give their favorite DraftKings value plays for Wednesday’s MLB slate.
Watch today’s entire episode of The Sweat below!
I’m going to go a little bit on the higher end of the value here. Nick Castellanos at $4.1K going up against the Brewers, against Adrian Houser — a guy who I generally like to pick on, especially last season. Obviously, been better this season for the most part. But Castellanos has done well against Adrian Houser throughout the course of his career — something I look at a lot when I’m looking at value plays, even on the higher end.
(Castellanos is) 8-for-23 (with) three doubles and a home run. One of those doubles came earlier in the season when Houser pitched against the Phillies. I know Castellanos, you look at that average and you think “that’s not exactly appealing,” but when I look at some of his numbers over the last 21 games against right-handed (pitching), he’s got a 34% hard-contact rate, only a 10% soft-contact rate ... only a .208 BABIP in the course of that despite a lot of quality contact. He’s too good a hitter for these struggles to maintain.
I’m going to go with Ian Happ, who has been a lot better as a right-handed hitter than he’s been as a left-handed hitter so far in 2022, but he’s not been bad as a lefty. He’s got a 112 wRC+; he’s been 12% better than league average against right-handed pitching so far this season.
The right-hander he gets to face on Wednesday is Jordan Lyles, who has really struggled with left-handed bats. Lefties are hitting .304 with a .391 wOBA against Jordan Lyles so far this season. Happ, obviously, is going to be batting in the top half of that Cubs lineup. Also, maybe the orioles bring in a left-handed reliever and he really gets to showcase his talents as a right-handed hitter.
But as it stands, he’s just been hitting the cover off the baseball in the month of June. It’s only a 31-plate-appearance sample size, but he’s got a 198 wRC+ plus so far in the month. So, Happ is hot, Lyles is not good against left-handed batters and I think that’s the perfect combination on Wednesday.
Nick’s Pick: Nick Castellanos ($4,100)
Garion’s Pick: Ian Happ ($3,700)
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
DraftKings promoters may sometimes play on personal accounts in the games that advice is offered on. Personal views on the games and strategies above do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. DraftKings promoters may also deploy different players and strategies than what is recommended above. DraftKings promoters do not have access to any non-public information.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY), visit OPGR.org (OR), call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN), ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600 (ONT), or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).
21+ (18+ NH/WY; 19+ ONT). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/ONT/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions. DraftKings operates pursuant to an Operating Agreement with iGaming Ontario. Please play responsibly.