After a rough go on Thursday, our record for article plays now stands at 34-28 for the season. Thankfully, there’s a lot of baseball on the horizon and many opportunities to turn things around.
Here are three wagers I like on Friday night.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Toronto Blue Jays at Milwaukee Brewers
Alek Manoah Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120)
For as good as Manoah’s been this season, the strikeouts just haven’t been there. Well, they haven’t been there as much as we’ve seen in the past. The hulking RHP cruised through the minors with a 40.3% strikeout rate, then posted a well-above average 27.7% mark in his rookie campaign. However, in 2022, Manoah’s struck out only 22.9% of opponents, which ranks him in the 55th percentile of qualified pitchers. It’s not awful, but it’s underwhelming, and it’s translated into the West Virginia product registering five strikeouts or fewer in six of his past eight outings.
As for the Brewers, there’s a few things to note as it pertains to this prop. First and foremost, Milwaukee owns the National League’s second-lowest chase rate (29.6%) and swinging strike rate (9.7%) in the month of June. Secondly, we’ll likely see four left-handed batters in the Brewers’ lineup this evening in the form of Christian Yelich, Rowdy Tellez, Omar Narvaez and Jace Peterson. Manoah has struck out a paltry 15.2% of the 164 LHBs he’s faced this season. That numbers is down dramatically from 2021.
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Oakland Athletics at Kansas City Royals
Under 9.5 (-115)
While I can appreciate that Zack Greinke is washed and that the advanced statistics loathe Cole Irvin, what are we doing here? On a night with 15 games, the one with a matchup between the Athletics and the Royals has the highest total on the slate? Kansas City and Oakland come into Friday ranking 27th and 29th, respectively, in runs scored. The Royals are one of six teams with a wOBA below .300, while the Athletics currently sit dead-last in all of baseball in both wOBA (.266) and wRC+ (75). I simply have a hard time believing that both these lineups will produce simultaneously — let alone at all.
To be fair, Kansas City has almost been a league-average offense across the past two weeks, posting a 98 wRC+ within that span of time. However, any concerns about that are offset by the fact that the Royals clearly draw the more difficult matchup in Irvin. As mentioned above, the contract-oriented lefty is not beloved by xERA in 2022; yet across his past nine outings, Irvin’s maintained a 2.63 ERA and a 3.33 FIP. That includes his most recent appearance, where he allowed just a single earned run over 6.1 innings against this same Kansas City lineup. I’d expect his success to continue this evening.
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals
Nolan Gorman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
It’s likely very easy to follow my logic on this one. To be blunt, Kyle Hendricks has been awful in 2022, particularly when it comes to retiring left-handed opponents. In fact, LHBs are slashing .294/.369/.601 with a .413 wOBA off of the veteran. Hendricks is also striking out just 16.0% of the lefties he’s seen, which is a crucial element of this equation.
The lone flaw for Gorman in his rookie season has been strikeouts, as the 22-year-old has gone down on strikes in nearly a third of his plate appearances. But when he does make contact? Watch out. Gorman’s actually posted a massive .535 xwOBA on his batted ball events so far this season, while the infielder also sports a .226 ISO and a 141 wRC+ in his PAs against right-handed opponents. Between Hendricks and a shaky Cubs bullpen, I’m expecting big things from Gorman in this rivalry contest.
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