All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Per usual, I’ll put everything official up on Twitter that I bet on personally. This is a betting guide for this NBA card, and anything I’ve actually bet will include a unit amount.
There’s two ways you can look at Game 4 of this series. The first is that you’re only going to get once chance to steal a road game in a close series like this between two really good teams. If that’s the case, Saturday afternoon was probably that chance in Game 3, and the Celtics fell short.
The other way to look at it is that the Celtics absolutely have to bounce-back, as was the case in Game 2. They did so in Game 2, but that was on their home floor. However, in Boston’s two-point road loss on Saturday, the lack of efficiency from Jayson Tatum was glaring. Milwaukee has been tremendous on Tatum defensively in this series, but it’s extremely unlikely we see another 4-for-19 performance from the field.
Boston has been elite defensively in this series, holding the Bucks to 103 points or less in all three games, and that includes with 42 from Giannis Antentokounmpo in Game 3. I think if Giannis and Tatum both revert a little more towards average performances in Game 4, the Celts squeak this one out.
As for the total, you probably know the trends by now. The Bucks have played to the under in nine consecutive playoff games, and all three games in this series have stayed well under the total. Eventually I do think we see a game where more shots start going down, and with the tight point spread, we always have to be cautious of overtime on the full game number — we were fractions of a second away from OT in Game 3.
We’ve seen some slow starts in these games, and a lot of it has to do with feeling out the opponent and what types of adjustments each side have made since the previous contest. Games have been right there, averaging 101 points in the first half, but I think we should see this trend continue in Game 4.
This will be a smaller play if I wind up putting it on my card, but if you have less exposure to the Warriors in the futures market then maybe you’ll play it bigger. We have the Warriors -1.5 games on the series spread for 2-units from before the series began (not to mention some futures to win the West).
The double-digit spread in this game isn’t real worth a play on in my opinion. I’d even lean to Memphis if you made me play it, regardless of Morant’s status. That said, there’s no way Golden State is losing this game at home — but what are we going to do with a -550 moneyline?
What I do know is that after the Warriors win this game, the price on them to close out in Game 5 gets steeper, even with it on the road. And I also know that I’m going to want to back the Dubs in that spot. So rather than wait for Game 5, I’d prefer just getting in a play now at even money in a game I know they’ll be decent sized favorites in.
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