Friday is usually a day filled with baseball but my goodness, rain had different plans for the evening. Now, we have a massive number of games taking place here on Saturday. Let’s take a look at some plays for today.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Since Rodriguez has moved to Detroit, his career hasn’t exactly gone as planned. He’s been struggling and his 5.33 ERA and a 4.39 xERA backs that up. Today, he faces one of the better offenses against left-handed pitching in the Astros. Coming into this game, the Astros have a 106 wRC+ (12th) to go with a .305 wOBA, a .160 ISO and a 10.5% BB%. This team also doesn’t strikeout much, boasting just a 20.3% K% against lefties.
I like taking these outs totals a lot. With the total of 16.5, we need Rodriguez to go no more than 5 2⁄3 innings. In the five games he’s pitched, he hasn’t gone over six innings and hasn’t really had any clean outings. Rodriguez has allowed at least three runs in all but one of his five starts. The Astros, as evidenced by his 10.5% BB%, are a very patient team and can work the counts, which can help drive up Rodriguez’s pitch count. With this excellent lineup against lefties, I think they can knock Rodriguez out of his game early.
This bet is for Game 2 of their doubleheader. Daniel Norris is taking the mound for the Cubs and I expect a lot of offense coming from them in this game. Norris is likely going to serve as an opener for this game, as he’s only pitched a total of six innings through five appearances. In that, he has a 6.00 ERA with a 5.24 FIP. Small sample size of course, so we can go back to his 2021 numbers with the Tigers. Spoiler alert: they aren’t much better. Norris was knocked around with a 6.16 ERA, a 4.87 FIP and a 4.7 BB/9. This Dodgers lineup simply doesn’t give opposing pitchers a chance to breathe and on the road, they’re averaging 4.6 runs per game, which places them eighth best in the league.
We have two very good pitchers taking the mound tonight with Pablo Lopez and Sean Manaea taking the hill for their respective teams. Both starters have been as good as advertised, especially Lopez. He comes into this game with a 1.29 ERA to go with a 2.04 FIP, a 9.6 K/9 and just a 1.9 BB/9. He’s hardly giving up any hard contact, with opposing hitters generating it just 18% of the time. Lopez is also seeing a huge jump in his whiff rate, seeing 18.6%. For reference, his previous career high was at 16% last season.
As for Manaea, he’ll take on a Marlins offense that has really struggled against lefties thus far. Entering this game, they have just a 79 wRC+, a .272 wOBA and a .108 ISO. They also are striking out a TON with a 29.6% K%, which currently tops the league. All of this together has me liking the under seven runs in this game.
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