The top-seeded Heat took care of the fourth-seeded 76ers in the first two games of the Eastern Conference Semifinals by 14 and 16 points. It helped Joel Embiid didn’t play, and he’s listed as out for Game 3, as well. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Heat favored by 3 points, with the total at 210 for Game 3 in Philadelphia.
Let’s go over the fantasy outlook for the game for Showdown contests on DraftKings.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $100K Fadeaway [$25K to 1st] (MIA vs PHI)
Captain’s Picks
Bam Adebayo ($14,400) - Adebayo is one of the most versatile players at both ends of the floor. He can break defenders off the dribble, shoot over them, run a one-man fastbreak, rebound and dish out assists. On defense, he can guard bigs down low and keep quicker guards from getting in the paint. It helps he doesn’t have to bang with Embiid in this series. A bigger aspect for his productivity, though, is the absence of Kyle Lowry ($11,400 CP), who is questionable for Friday’s game. Without Lowry on the floor, Bam has been more of an initiator on offense. Last season, he dished out 5.4 assists per game. With Lowry in the mix, that number decreased to 3.4. He’s dished out three, four and four in the last three games, but the opportunities for more have been there. Bam has scored at least 20 points in each of the last three contests while grabbing nine, 12 and 11 rebounds. He also chips in defensive stats. He’s gone for at least 40 DKFP in each of the last three games, with a high of 51. Bam is $2,100 cheaper than Jimmy Butler ($16,500 CP), but he could score in the similar range.
Tobias Harris ($13,200) - Harris isn’t exciting, but he’s a solid option. He’s scored 21 and 27 points in this series, attempting 17 and 18 shots, respectively. He will also chip in some rebounds and assists while contributing steals from time to time. That’s translated to 41 and 37 DKFP. In these playoffs, he’s gone for at least 30 DKFP in every contest, with four above 40. Over the last three games, the usage rate has been 23.4%, a three-percentage-point increase over his regular season average.
FLEX Plays
Tyler Herro ($8,400) - Herro is the microwave off the bench for the Heat. Dare I say he brings the heat for the Heat? His usage rate is in the low-20% range, and he’s going to huck up over 10 shots per contest. While he doesn’t contribute much in the defensive categories, he will grab some rebounds and dish out assists. He’s scored 33.75 and 38.75 DKFP so far this series.
Value
Victor Oladipo ($5,600) - If Kyle Lowry ($7,600) plays, then Oladipo would likely see a lesser role. So far with Lowry out, Oladipo has played 28 and 27 minutes. The range of outcomes has been wide, though, primarily due to the shooting efficiency. He shot 2-for-8 in the first game then went 6-for-11 in Game 2. He will grab some rebounds and usually contribute in the defensive categories, although he only has one block so far in this series. He’s gone for 15.75 and 27.5 DKFP in the first two games.
Fades
Tyrese Maxey ($8,600) - Maxey went for 34 points last game as he played 43 minutes and shot 12-for-22 from the field. My issue with Maxey is he is so dependent upon scoring for fantasy production. In the two games vs. Miami, he’s totaled three rebounds, three assists and two steals. He did display a more balanced game in the Toronto series, but that was when Embiid was on the floor, drawing most of the defensive attention. Could Maxey go bonkers again? Sure, he’s a talented scorer. Due to recency bias, the rostership will likely be higher than normal and the floor is lower than most realize. He went for 21.5 DKFP in the first game of the series and scored in the 20s for three games in the Toronto series.
James Harden ($10,600) - Harden is a shell of his former self. He is not as explosive to turn the corner, which has made him easier to defend and contest his step-back and side-step jumpers. Once a triple-double certainty, he hasn’t accomplished the feat since early April. He’s gone for 39.5 and 33.25 DKFP in the first two games of the series, and Miami has been one of the best defensive teams in the league this season, so the probability of a ceiling game is muted. Could it happen? Of course, but I’d rather utilize the salary somewhere else.
The Outcome
The Heat are top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They have shooting and a player in Butler who can get his shot at any time. The 76ers are discombobulated without their leader in Embiid. This season, the 76ers were 6-8 without Embiid. While I expect a spirited game from Philadelphia since they are returning home and understand the importance of this Game 3, the Heat are just the better team and should sweep the leg.
Final score: Heat 103, 76ers 98
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $100K Fadeaway [$25K to 1st] (MIA vs PHI)
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