Happy Memorial Day! There’s plenty of baseball action to celebrate the holiday, including seven games starting at 6:10 p.m. ET or later.
The Pick: Royals ML (+130)
Monday’s matchup between the Royals and Guardians features two uninspiring pitchers. The Guardians will turn to Zach Plesac, who has pitched to a 5.40 ERA through his eight starts. His advanced metrics don’t suggest much room for growth either, checking in with a 5.05 FIP and a 5.82 K/9. Plesac’s numbers from last season were very similar, so he’s a well-known commodity at this point.
The Royals will hand the ball to Jonathan Heasley, who is a bit more of a wildcard. His numbers to start the year have been even worse than Plesac’s – 4.73 ERA, 7.19 FIP, 4.73 K/9 – but they come over a much smaller sample size. He’s made just three starts in the majors this season, and his numbers were significantly better in the minor leagues. Heasley also has a bit of a pedigree, entering the year as the Royals’ No. 13 prospect. He’s far from a sure thing, but he has a bit of upside.
With that in mind, I’ll roll the dice with Heasley and the Royals as moderate underdogs. The Royals are also one of the preferred targets for the sharps on Monday, garnering 75% of the dollars on just 44% of the bets. That’s caused this line to dip, but there’s still some value with +130.
The Pick: Over 9.0 runs (+100)
The weather is starting to heat up, and so is the Mets’ offense. They rank third in the league in runs per game, and they’ve averaged seven runs per game over their past three contests. Their Statcast data for the year is a bit more mediocre, but they’ve made some gains in that department recently.
They’ll take the field Monday against Erick Fedde, and they can find some success in that matchup. Fedde owns a 5.04 ERA for his career, and while his numbers have been a bit better this season, his 4.17 FIP is still average at best.
The Nationals' offense also has the potential to do some damage on Monday. They’re taking on David Peterson, who is filling in for the Mets given their abundance of injuries at pitcher. He’s been very effective as a member of the rotation, pitching to a 2.16 ERA over 25 innings, but he’s been significantly lucky. Opposing batters have managed just a .219 batting average on balls in play, so he’s a regression candidate moving forward.
Nine runs is a relatively high total for 2022, but I still think it’s a bit too low for this matchup.
Diamondbacks ML (+100)
The Diamondbacks have a tough matchup on paper vs. the Braves, but the Braves have been a major disappointment to start the year. They’re just 23-25 through their first 48 games, putting them 8.5-games behind the Mets in the NL East.
The Diamondbacks will also have one of the best pitchers in baseball on the mound in Zac Gallen. He’s been phenomenal this season, posting a 2.22 ERA through his first eight outings. His FIP sits at 2.80, so he should be able to continue to produce at a high level.
Additionally, the Braves boast the worst strikeout rate in the league against right-handed pitchers. They’ve whiffed in 26.8% of at bats against right-handers, and no other team is above 25.2%. In fact, the gap between the Braves and Pirates – who rank second in strikeout rate – is greater than the gap between the Pirates and the A’s (who rank ninth).
Gallen has quality strikeout stuff, so he should be able to take advantage of an aggressive Braves lineup. You can definitely play the over on his strikeout prop, but the moneyline odds on the Diamondbacks are also very appealing.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY), visit OPGR.org (OR), call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN), ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600 (ONT), or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).
21+ (18+ NH/WY; 19+ ONT). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/ONT/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions. DraftKings operates pursuant to an Operating Agreement with iGaming Ontario. Please play responsibly.