All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Per usual, I’ll put everything official up on Twitter that I bet on personally. This is a betting guide for this NBA card, and anything I’ve actually bet will include a unit amount.
MIA/BOS ML Parlay (-106) — 1.5-units (From Monday article)
If you read Monday’s article you are already in on this play with Miami cashing the first leg in Game 1. However, if you missed the play, I’d look to get in on this play using Game 2 of each series. The Heat dominated the 76ers in the second half of Game 1, and I don’t give Philly a chance at winning a road game without Joel Embiid — particularly if Doc Rivers is dumb enough to continue starting De’Andre Jordan.
As for the Celtics, this is a must-win game. The betting splits from DraftKings Sportsbook indicate heavy sharp action on Boston, but I want to avoid laying any points here and just play for the win — especially with how confident I am in the Heat in each of these first two games.
Despite some usual highlight plays from Giannis Antentokounmpo in Game 1, the Celtics played him pretty well, holding him to 9-for-25 shooting. In fact, the Celtics were fine defensively overall, holding Milwaukee to 101 points. The one major adjustment they should look to make in Game 2 is maybe letting Giannis have more for himself in the mid-range. After shooting poorly in Game 1, those are the shots the Celtics would rather have compared to getting hurt from downtown. Nine of Giannis’ 12 assists on Sunday led to a made 3-point field goal — that’s what the Celts will look to limit.
The issue for the Celtics was offensively. They scored just 89 points and had a lack of aggressiveness when it came to attacking the rim. Part of that is Milwaukee’s size, but I expect plenty of adjustments. The C’s shot a mere 10-of-34 on 2-point field goals, and also shot fewer free throws than the Bucks. Milwaukee won points in the paint by 14, points off turnovers by 21 and fast break points by 20. Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart shot a combined 13-of-42 from the field.
I expect a response from the Celtics at home here, stemming from a much cleaner game offensively.
GSW ML (-130) — 1-unit
The Warriors stole Game 1 in Memphis on Sunday with nearly everything working against them. If the Grizzlies couldn’t come away with a home win in that game, given the circumstances, they’re going to have a very difficult time finding a win in this series.
If they do win one of the first four games, this does feel like the one they get, which is why I’m keeping this to a smaller play. But I also wouldn’t be shocked to see Golden State dominate and take complete control of this series. This is a team with a core that obviously has tons of experience going up against a young Grizzlies team that already took their next step in winning a hard fought first-round series.
Here’s what happened in Game 1 — Draymond Green was ejected after playing just 17 minutes. Stephen Curry and Klay Thomson shot a combined 14-for-39, and Thompson even missed two key free throws to give Memphis one last shot.
The Grizzlies still couldn’t even win despite a 34-9-10 line from Ja Morant and 33 points and 10 boards from Jaren Jackson Jr. Even Brandon Clarke and DeAnthony Melton provided huge boosts off the bench. Desmond Bane and Dillon Brooks did have off-games shooting the ball, but you could argue that Jackson making everything he put up should even that out.
I don’t want to go too big against Memphis in a must-win spot (the identical spot the Celtics are in after losing Game 1 at home), but the Grizz are outmatched here. Warriors or pass.
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY), visit OPGR.org (OR), call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN), or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).
21+ (18+ NH/WY). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.