TPC Potomac at Avenel Farms will host this year’s Wells Fargo Championship. Quail Hollow, the usual stop for this event, is hosting the 2022 President’s Cup.
TPC Potomac isn’t an entirely new stop on the PGA TOUR; it hosted the 2017 and 2018 Quicken Loans National, and past winners here include Kyle Stanley (-7) and Francesco Molinari (-21). The course is relatively straightforward, but golfers will need to find fairways if they wish to succeed—both Molinari and Stanley ranked inside the top-4 in fairways gained en route to their victory. Stanley was +4500 pre-tournament, and Molinari was +2000.
For a full course preview, key statistics breakdown and additional players to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook, refer to the DraftKings Preview on DraftKings Playbook. Here are the bets we should be considering this week.
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Even though last week was in his home country, Vidanta wasn’t the best fit for Ancer. His ball-striking and putting were fantastic in Mexico, and if he can do the same this week, he’ll be in much better shape. Ancer is one of the most accurate drivers of the ball and has been for a while, ranking eighth in fairways gained over the last 50 rounds. Ancer’s first and only win came on another TPC course (TPC Southwind) in a WGC event, so he should like his chances this week.
Fairways hit in regulation will be necessary, mainly if the weather stays windy and wet. The rough will be nearly impossible to play out of, which is why Streelman could find success if he can keep on playing from the fairway. A 7th at Innisbrook, 18th at TPC San Antonio, 20th (2021) at Colonial CC and a runner-up (2020) to go along with a win (2014) at TPC River Highlands are promising signs Streelman can play well this week. Brian Harman (+6500, T10 +500) should also be on the shortlist of golfers in this range. Over the last 24 rounds, Harman ranks 10th in fairways gained, first in SG: par 4 scoring, and 12th in opportunities gained. He’s also been great at TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship) and Colonial CC (Charles Schwab Challenge).
The stats don’t look pretty, but Hoffman is a better player than his betting numbers present this week. He’s missed four cuts in a row, so an outright may be a little farfetched, but some of his derivative bets have decent value. Hoffman is one of the better long iron hitters on TOUR, ranking eighth over the last 12 rounds, and finished 3rd (2021) at Colonial CC (Charles Schwab Challenge) along with a 3rd (2017) and runner-up (2014) at TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship). These two courses could resemble what we see from TPC Potomac this week.
Removing emotion from the equation, this has a good chance of hitting this week. If you follow this article or my account, Finau is an autoplay most weeks. Finau’s first top-10 this year is promising, but I’m worried that the polarity between Vidanta and TPC Potomac might work against him. Finau was fantastic with his ball-striking, but Vidanta has some of the widest and most forgiving fairways on TOUR, while TPC Potomac is the exact opposite. Both are struggling on the greens but getting Woodland at plus money, who, over the previous 24 rounds, ranks third in approach, fourth in SG: par 4, third in SG: par 4 on holes between 450 to 500 yards and second in bogey avoidance is excellent. No other course is hitting fairways more critical than here, and Finau ranks 124th in fairways gained over the last 24 rounds.
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