The Boston Celtics look to close out their series with the Miami Heat in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The game will be in Boston. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Celtics favored by 8.5 points, with the total at 201. Boston was 28-13 at home during the regular season while Miami was 24-17 on the road. In the playoffs, Boston is 5-3 at home while Miami is 3-4 on the road.
Jayson Tatum ($16,500) - After a terrible Game 3 in which Tatum scored 10 points and 21 DKFP, he has bounced back in the last two contests, putting up over 50 DKFP in each. The usage rate has been 32.1% and 35.6%. He has played over 40 minutes in three of the five games this series and attempted at least 20 shots in two. He hasn’t racked up a ton of defensive stats recently, just two blocks and zero steals in the last three games, but he’s chipped in plenty of rebounds and assists to go along with the points. In these playoffs, Tatum has put up at least 50 DKFP in nine of 16 games with two above 60.
Bam Adebayo ($12,000) - If I’m utilizing a Heat player, Bam is the guy for me. Jimmy Butler ($15,300 CPT) looks to be affected by the knee issue while Kyle Lowry ($9,300) looks toast with the hamstring strain. The floor is surprisingly low with Bam, especially since he can contribute in every statistical category. He’s scored fewer than 20 DKFP in four games these playoffs. That said, he’s gone over 40 DKFP five times with a high of 63.5. The usage rate will rarely get above 20%, but with Butler and Lowry banged up, he may have to put a little more on his shoulders in an elimination game. He has pulled down 10 rebounds twice in this series and has a four-steal game and a four-block game. If he does shoulder more offensive responsibility and puts it all together on the defensive end, there is a chance of a ceiling game. It’s a low probability event, but that should also depress the ownership.
Derrick White ($5,400) - White has been very good the last two games, putting up 27.25 and 39 DKFP. The usage rate has been above 20%, and he’s played 29 and 41 minutes. Now, Marcus Smart ($7,600) was out one of those games due to the sprained ankle he suffered. Even when Smart returned, White was an integral part of the rotation and stuffed the stat sheet with 14 points, one rebound, five assists, two steals and one block. White is an excellent defender, so the minutes floor should be high.
Al Horford ($8,200) - Horford is the nice guy. He’s the one with the stable job, wears polo shirts and says please and thank you to the girlfriend’s parents. He is definitely not the one with tattoos, picking up the girlfriend on a Harley with a cigarette dangling from his lips. The usage rate hasn’t been 20% in any game this playoffs. Yet, he’s scored over 40 DKFP five times with a high of 57. Over the last three games, he’s gone for 38.25, 34.25 and 49.5 DKFP. He rebounds, drains the open three, dishes out assists and racks up defensive stats.
Caleb Martin ($1,200) - Martin has played 15, 25, 10 and 18 minutes over the last four games. The usage rate has been at least 19%, and he’s put up double-digit DKFP in each of those contests. He’s averaging 1.01 FP/Min in these playoffs and, with the Heat backcourt banged up, he should play in the 15-minute area. When he’s on the floor, he’s not shy about shooting as he’s attempted seven, 10, four and eight shots in the last four games. You can’t beat that usage and opportunity at this price.
Jimmy Butler ($10,200) - Butler just doesn’t look right due to the knee issue. He’s not able to take it strong to the rack and has shot 4-for-18 and 3-for-14 from the field in the last two games. The usage rate has only been 21% and 24.9% after being above 30% in the first two games of the series. This really depends on projected ownership because if he comes in low, then I have no problem going here because of the upside he possesses. I do think the ownership will still be high and the Bam recommendation correlates with a Butler fade.
TD Garden is going to be a mad house on Friday, and that raucous crowd is going to propel the Celtics at both ends of the court. In these playoffs, Boston has had the second-best defensive rating and best net rating by a wide margin. The Heat are banged up and look to be light on the firepower needed to prevent a Celtics-Warriors NBA Finals.
Final score: Celtics 103, Heat 93
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