All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Per usual, I’ll put everything official up on Twitter that I bet on personally. This is a betting guide for this NBA card, and anything I’ve actually bet will include a unit amount.
Series Spread: MIA -1.5 Games (-140) — 1.5-units
MIA/BOS ML Parlay (-106) — 1.5-units
The Heat were initially a -165 favorite on the series line, but then we got the whopper that Joel Embiid would miss the first two games of the series with a facial fracture. It does sound like Embiid will make his way back in this series by the time the games transition to Philadelphia, but his team very well could be in a 2-0 whole by then.
The 76ers tend to really struggle in the postseason, and we saw that with how much they struggled to finish off a banged up Raptors squad in the first-round. Miami is not a team that will hesitate to pounce on this wounded Philly roster. Yes, Kyle Lowry is dinged up and likely misses a decent amount of time as well, but the Heat are insanely deep — they essentially rested Jimmy Butler in a close out game in the first-round (and it worked with Victor Oladipo filling in flawlessly).
The Heat are a terrific moneyline parlay piece in Game 1, and I like them to take a commanding 2-0 series lead with Embiid out. Just way too many mismatches on the floor, and Miami also has the depth to hurt the Sixers and continue building leads in bench minutes. Tough to imagine Philly coming back in this series if it gets off to the start we’re expecting.
For my parlay, I am linking it with the Celtics in Game 2. The C’s were atrocious offensively in Game 1 against the Bucks, finishing 89 points on 33% shooting. Boston was pretty locked in defensively, and I think that part of the game plan we can see repeated on Tuesday. The Celtics got some very good looks, but just couldn’t get the ball to go through the net. I’m banking on a bounce-back spot in a must-win game at home. Shot will fall for the C’s.
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