Fantasy Basketball Picks: Top DraftKings NBA DFS Targets for Mavericks vs. Suns Showdown on May 2

The top-seeded Phoenix Suns host the fourth-seeded Dallas Mavericks in the first game of the Western Conference Semifinals. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Suns favored by 5.5 points, with the total at 214.5. The Suns swept the season series, 3-0. Keep in mind that Luka Doncic missed two of those games and the Mavericks were a vastly different team, still having Kristaps Porzingis. During the regular season, Dallas was fifth in defensive rating while Phoenix was 11th. They were two of the slowest-paced teams, as well, with Dallas being the slowest and Phoenix the ninth-slowest.

Let’s go over the fantasy outlook for the game for Showdown contests on DraftKings.

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $300K Fadeaway [$100K to 1st] (DAL vs PHX)

Captain’s Picks

Luka Doncic ($19,200) - Doncic averages 1.57 DKFP per minute. He is the alpha and omega of the Mavericks offense and often garners a usage rate above 40%. He’s a triple-double threat on any given night, and he has been chipping in defensive stats, as well. He is the most expensive player by a wide margin, so much will depend on projected ownership and roster construction. That said, he has the highest floor/ceiling combo on the slate. He’s put up at least 50 DKFP in each of the last 10 games with two above 70. The Suns were one of the best teams in neutralizing FPPM to point guards, but Doncic is no ordinary point guard. In his lone meeting vs. Phoenix, he put up 49 DKFP.

Chris Paul ($16,200) - Paul and Doncic are the two highest-priced players and will likely be the highest rostered, as well. I usually try to veer away from at least one, but I couldn’t. A case could be made for Devin Booker ($15,000 CP), and I’d go there if the ownership is low, but I doubt that it will be. In the New Orleans series, Paul went for over 50 DKFP four times with a high of 64.25. He did have a 26.75-DKFP game in there, though, so a floor game is possible. Booker could go bonkers, or he could shoot 2-for-8 from the field as he did in that game. It’s within the range of outcomes, but the likely outcome is he lands in the 40-DKFP range. Paul averages 1.23 DKFP per minute and has been playing 37 minutes per game in the playoffs. His usage rate has been in the 25% range, and he’s dished out double-digit assists in every game but one and scored at least 20 points in four. He has also racked up a steal in the last 13 games he’s played, logging two in seven of those contests.

FLEX Plays

Jalen Brunson ($8,600) - Porzingis was the anointed Robin to Doncic’s Batman, but the Mavericks eventually realized they already had their Robin on the roster. In the Utah series, Brunson donned the cape and mask in Doncic’s absence, had a usage rate of 34% and led the Mavericks to a 2-1 record. Once Doncic’s returned, Brunson’s usage rate decreased, but it was still a healthy 26.4%, 29.2% and 29.8%. He scored at least 23 points in each game with Doncic, which translated to at least 34 DKFP in each of those contests. Brunson scored at least 40 DKFP vs. the Suns during the regular with Doncic out, so he’s proven to be able to be productive against one of the better defenses in the league.

Value

Maxi Kleber ($4,000) - Kleber should get around 20 minutes of run. He doesn’t do much outside of shoot 3-pointers and grab rebounds, so the floor is low. That said, he can access a ceiling if he gets hot or receives more playing time than expected. The Suns boost the 3-point prowess to opposing centers by 27.52% above the league average, so the matchup is a good one for Kleber. In his lone game vs. Phoenix during the regular season, Kleber played 27 minutes and produced 22.75 DKFP, despite shooting only 1-for-7 from downtown.

Fades

Dorian Finney-Smith ($7,200) - Finney-Smith is a low-usage player who plays a ton of minutes. He averaged 43 minutes per game in the Utah series and put up at least 23 DKFP in every contest, with two above 30 and a high of 41.5. It’s tough to fade someone who will be on the court so much and chips in a little something in every category but blocks. That said, the matchup isn’t a good one, as the Suns neutralized the FPPM to power forwards by 10.58% below the league average.

Spencer Dinwiddie ($7,000) - Dinwiddie was an excellent acquisition for Dallas, as he gave them another ball-handler/playmaker. He was especially valuable when Luka was out. When Doncic is playing, though, he goes back to the second unit and sees both his minutes and usage rate take a hit. In the Utah series, he played 37, 40 and 41 minutes without Doncic and put up 34, 39 and 41.25 DKFP, respectively. When Doncic returned, Dinwiddie’s playing time decreased to 24, 28 and 32 minutes and his DKFP production was 13.5, 16 and 26.75, respectively.

The Outcome

Both teams are good defensively and play slow. With the first game of a series usually being one where teams feel each other out, a low-scoring affair should be in order. Phoenix was tied for the best home record during the regular season and playoffs at 34-10. ATS, though, they were only 21-23. Dallas was 27-17 ATS on the road. I like the Suns to take care of business at home, but it should come down to the last few possessions.

Final score: Suns 99, Mavericks 96

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $300K Fadeaway [$100K to 1st] (DAL vs PHX)

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