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MLB Picks for May 18: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Nick Friar provides MLB betting trends along with his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for May 18.

Wednesday presents quite a few quality MLB betting options. We’ll stay focused on the evening games as we figure out how to best approach DraftKings Sportsbook.

Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals

Jazz Chisholm over 1.5 total bases +105

DJ Jazzy Chisholm is one of the game’s hottest hitters right now. A lot of the success he’s experienced to this point has come against right-handed pitchers, and he’ll face another one on Wednesday.

Of his 15 extra-base hits, only one (a double) has come against a lefty. Those have led to a whopping .319 ISO and .436 wOBA against righties. More importantly, this has all been the result of his 45.7% hard-contact rate against righties, further illustrating how well he’s seeing right-handed offerings.

Moreover, the righty Chisholm will see is in the midst of a rough patch. Josiah Gray has given up nine runs on 11 hits, five of which have been home runs, over his last 11 1/3 innings. Also, he hasn’t been good against left-handed hitters. Six of the eight home runs he’s given up have been hit by lefties, along with four of his other eight extra-base hits allowed.

Marlins -1.5 +120

Speaking of Gray struggling, this is a very lopsided matchup on the mound. As much as Miami isn’t throwing a ton of left-handed bats at Gray, righties did quite a bit of damage against him when the Marlins saw him back on April 26.

Pablo Lopez, meanwhile, has only had the one hiccup vs. Arizona all season. And with the Nationals having a soft-contact rate north of 20% against right-handed pitching, he’s in position to go deep Wednesday. That should help ease the load for Miami’s bullpen, which has been fine to start 2022 — the same cannot be said of Washington’s, which also helps this play.

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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners

Kevin Gausman over 18.5 outs +120

If Tuesday was any indication of where the Mariners stand against right-handed pitching right now, Gausman is in for a big day. The over on his strikeouts props (6.5) is a good play at right around even-money (-105), but there’s a reason his outs recorded prop is my preferred option here.

As much as Gausman has only gone under this strikeout prop number once outside of his first 2022 start, the Mariners are middle of the pack in terms of strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Now, that’s not enough to deter me from an elite pitcher’s strikeout prop in this spot. However, what did push me toward the outs recorded prop is Seattle’s 20.7% soft-contact rate against right-handed pitching. Some of that soft contact is robbing pitchers of strikeouts, but sometimes also helping extend their outings.

Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers

SG Parlay: Shohei Ohtani to get a hit and 5+ strikeouts -110

I was on the lookout for Ohtani’s pitching props coming into Wednesday since the Rangers don’t hit right-handed pitchers not named Ryan Tepera well. He’s also in a favorable matchup at the plate against Dane Dunning. Combine all that with the juice being so high on Ohanti’s strikeouts prop, and here we are.

Now, as bad as the Rangers are against right-handed pitching, they don’t have the highest strikeout rate against them. At 21.8%, they’re middle of the pack. Still, that’s plenty good enough for Ohtani when his total is set at 6.5 and we only need five. Also, when you look at this Texas lineup, there are a lot of guys he’s punched out multiple times in limited chances.

At the plate, Ohtani is like the rest of his teammates against right-handed pitching. Five of his eight doubles and six of his eight home runs have come against right-handed pitching. Now, his ISO is high, but his .830 OPS and .355 wOBA against righties aren’t overwhelming. But, his 35.1% hard-contact rate and 8.1% soft-contact rate indicate he’s largely seeing the ball from righties.

Also, lefties have a 54.8% hard-contact rate and only a 38.1% ground-ball rate against Dunning. So, if you want to go the total bases route instead of just backing Ohtani getting a hit, you can increase the value quite a bit by backing him at 2+ total bases (+205).

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is dk-nfriar) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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