Game 7s are the greatest thing since bubble wrap! Now we get two of them on this glorious Sunday. The Phoenix Suns cruised in the first two games of the series but the Dallas Mavericks tightened the screws on defense at home. In the last two games, the teams have alternated wins with the final margin of victory being 30 and 27 points. In the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics series, no team has won consecutive games with both teams winning two games on the road. DraftKings Sportsbook has the home Celtics favored by five points while the home Suns are favored by 6.5 points.
Let’s break down some of the top studs and values at each position to help you build your DraftKings NBA lineups.
Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns ($11,600) – Luka averages 1.57 DKFP per minute. He’s a threat to triple-double on any given night and has scored at least 50 DKFP in every game this series with games of 68.8 and 75. The usage rate has been over 40% in five of six games, with the one game below at 39%. You better believe that in an elimination game he’s going to go bonkers. Normally, he would have the highest floor/ceiling on the slate but Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,000) is also on the slate, so the Serbian Slayer has to take a back seat to the Greek God on this day.
Other Options – Devin Booker ($8,600), Jrue Holiday ($8,200)
Derrick White, Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks ($4,600) – After playing only 16, 28 and 21 minutes in the first three games, White has received at least 30 minutes in each of the last three contests. The usage rate was below 10% in two of the games, but he was able to chip in a little something in every statistical category. He only averages 0.82 DKFP per minute but his defense has been good, and I see no reason why he wouldn’t continue getting 30 minutes of run. He’s put up at least 20 DKFP in each of the last three games.
Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks ($8,600) - Something is wrong with Chris Paul ($7,700). Is he injured? Is he getting worn down on defense because Dallas keeps hunting him? Whatever the reason, he is often just standing in the corner watching the offense move without him. As a result, Booker has taken more of the offensive load. The usage rate has been 31.5%, 30.7% and 33.7% over the last three games after being sub-30% to start the series. If the Suns are going to advance, then Booker is going to need to have a big game. In three home games this series, he’s gone for 44.3, 44.5 and 48.3 DKFP. A 50-burger wouldn’t surprise me.
Other Options – Jaylen Brown ($8,300)
Pat Connaughton, Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics ($4,400) – Connaughton only played 21 and 25 minutes in the first two games of the series. In the last four, though, he’s received over 30 minutes in each and produced 24, 25.25, 19.25 and 23 DKFP. He’s a low-usage player, so points won’t be voluminous, but he does get open looks from downtown due to the defense’s attention on Giannis. He will also grab his share of rebounds and contribute in the defensive categories. His hustle, defense, and ability to hit shots, whether from spotting up or taking it strong to the basket, have endeared him to the coaching staff.
Other Options – Derrick White ($4,600)
Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks ($10,000) – Tatum is coming off a 46-point game in which he shot 17-for-32 from the field and 7-for-15 from downtown. That was good for 66.8 DKFP. Simply put, he was stupendous and splendiferous. En fuego doesn’t do justice to what he did. Now, will the regression fairies flutter down and get busy? It’s possible but Tatum scored at least 30 points in the prior two games, and he’s played at least 40 minutes in every game this series. It will be interesting to see how the ownership plays out since Luka and Giannis are on the slate.
Other Options – Jaylen Brown ($8,200)
Wesley Matthews, Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics ($3,400) – Matthews averages 0.5 DKFP per minute. Hold up while I wipe the puke off the keyboard. He’s scored single-digit DKFP in two games this series and has eclipsed 20 DKFP only once. That said, he’s going to play close to 30 minutes, and the Bucks need offense outside of Holiday and Giannis. Value is going to be needed, so 20 DKFP at low ownership is the goal.
Other Options – Pat Connaughton ($4,400)
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics ($12,000) – Antetokounmpo averages 1.71 DKFP per minute and has the highest floor/ceiling on the slate. There’s really no need for extensive analysis. He literally does it all and has scored at least 60 DKFP in five of six games, with a high of 83.5. In the one game he failed to hit 60 DKFP, Antetokounmpo “only” put up 51.25.
Other Options – Jayson Tatum ($10,000), Al Horford ($7,200)
Bobby Portis, Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics ($5,000) – In Game 6, the usage rate was uncharacteristically 12.3%. In the other five games, it was in the 20% range. Portis is going to be an important player in this game because of the absence of Khris Middleton. He gives the Bucks another offensive option outside of Holiday and Giannis. Now, he’s shot 30% or below in each of the last four games. Yuck. During the regular season, he converted 47% of his attempts and 71% and 50% in the first two games. Portis has grabbed double-digit rebounds in the last two games and received 29 and 28 minutes. The range of outcomes is wide with Portis as he’s contributed fewer than 20 DKFP in two games but gone over 30 in two. That said, he did average 1.09 DKFP per minute during the season.
Other Options – Maxi Kleber ($4,900)
Al Horford, Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks ($7,200) – Horford has been spectacular this series. He’s scored 37.5, 40.75, 57, 48.5 and 34.5 DKFP in the first five games. In Game 6, he only went for 28.5 DKFP, but keep in mind that he only scored two points on 1-for-6 shooting. Translation: the floor is high because of his contributions in all the statistical categories. There’s upside too, though, as he’s gone over 40 DKFP three times with a high of 57. Horford is averaging 38.9 minutes in this series and he averaged 1 DKFP per minute this season.
Other Options – Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,000), Deandre Ayton ($7,100)
Robert Williams, Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Brewers ($4,800) – Williams is questionable for Sunday with a knee issue. He makes for an interesting option if he plays. In the three games he got on the court, Williams played 22, 25 and 23 minutes, producing 24, 20 and 32.3 DKFP. His defensive presence would be massive for the Celtics. He has racked up eight blocks and four steals this series.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Celtics C Robert Williams (knee) will be available to play today vs. the Bucks.
Other Options – Bobby Portis ($5,000), Maxi Kleber ($4,900)
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