The rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for Sunday. The order is not based on the highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by the value of each driver.
The DraftKings NASCAR Cup Series AdventHealth 400 at Kansas slate locks at 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday.
1. Kyle Larson ($11,100) — A fortunate caution mitigated a stage 3 speeding penalty at Las Vegas. Larson rushed back to the front and nearly won the race with a two-tire gamble at the end.
2. Ross Chastain ($9,700) — He recorded the most laps inside the top 5 and nearly won at Las Vegas. His pit crew was fast, and he was aggressive on restarts. Those same tricks will work at Kansas
3. Kyle Busch ($9,800) — Las Vegas would have been a win for Busch in a backup car with no practice. Eric Jones’ late race caution spoiled that story. That’s bad luck, but that’s a bad fast backup.
4. Martin Truex Jr ($10,400) — If the Las Vegas race went green, he might have had something for Kyle Busch on that final long run. When the caution came out, Truex dropped from second to sixth on pit road.
5. Alex Bowman ($9,300) — Kyle Busch says Bowman’s win at Las Vegas was a back door win. Someone buy Busch a mirror because Bowman turned the second-most laps inside the top 5.
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6. Ryan Blaney ($9,100) — Throw out the 2019-2021 Kansas stats. Those races were in the high-downforce package. Las Vegas is the best data point this weekend. Unfortunately, Blaney ran into Brad Keselowski’s weekly wreck at Las Vegas.
7. William Byron ($9,900) — Hendrick had fast cars at Las Vegas. Bowman and Larson finished one and two, and Byron finished in fifth. Byron ran the second-most laps inside the top 10.
8. Chase Elliott ($10,900) — The No. 9 Hendrick Chevy team couldn’t get the setup right at Las Vegas. Elliott couldn’t push the limit, but he still had a top-10 car. This team is light years ahead now (e.g. Dover win two weeks ago).
9. Denny Hamlin ($10,200) — Las Vegas best represents Hamlin’s season. He thought he had a race-winning car, but he had the following issues: bad alternator, power steering failure, a pit road mistake and eventually the motor died.
10. Joey Logano ($9,600) — He now has a win to go along with his solid finishes. He also has one coming if you ask William Byron and Jeff Gordon.
11. Christopher Bell ($8,400) — This season, Bell ranks sixth in Real Rating. He won the pole at Las Vegas, but the treacherous No. 1 pit stall buried him in traffic where he spun. Bell rebounded and finished 10th.
12. Kevin Harvick ($8,700) — The No. 4 SHR Ford was running some of the fastest times at Las Vegas when it didn’t have cars in front of it. Harvick always has cars in front of him.
13. Tyler Reddick ($8,900) — At Las Vegas, Reddick had to start in the back, but he was inside the top 15 by lap 62. He proceeded to spin out and had to do it all over again. By lap 148, he was inside the top 10 and would remain there for the rest of the race.
14. Michael McDowell ($5,300) — His top-10 finishes at Talladega and the Bristol dirt track aren’t great performance indicators. However, his 17th-place finish at Dover and his seventh-place finish at Darlington last week are.
15. Todd Gilliland ($4,900) — It looked like Gilliland was going to again finish outside of the top 25 last week, but then he caught a break and finished 15th. Sometimes, all a value play needs to do is not wreck.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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