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Per usual, I’ll put everything official up on Twitter that I bet on personally. This is a betting guide for this NBA card, and anything I’ve actually bet will include a unit amount.
We’re already invested in the series here if you’re someone that regularly reads and tails plays, and I personally have a bit more on the series from right when the initial Joel Embiid injury news hit. This is going to be a tight series, and I don’t think I can invest more in it.
However, if you’re currently not invested, I do think the Heat are worth a small play in Game 5. Kyle Lowry has been ruled out for Miami, but I think that could wind up being a positive. In the two games in Philly, Lowry played 55 minutes and shot 3-for-14 from the field, missing all eight of his attempts from downtown. The Heat are an incredibly deep team, and have the guys to fill those minutes and be more productive with them.
The 76ers have turned a corner with Embiid back in the lineup, but got a ton of production from their role players at home. A lot of that isn’t going to be replicated on the road, including what James Harden did in Game 4. Jimmy Butler was heroic in the two road games, but got close to nothing from the rest of the roster. I think the play of all the roll players on both sides should flip in this must-win game for Miami at home.
I really felt the Suns would find a way to split these games in Dallas, but the Mavs held serve at home. Credit to them, but Game 4 had some unique circumstances that really turn the tables in Phoenix’s favor for Game 5 — mostly just dealing with an angry Chris Paul.
There were some questionable calls on Sunday afternoon, with CP fouling out in a mere 23 minutes. Yes, part of it was poor decision making by him, but there’s also more that isn’t sitting well with Paul. His family was involved in a physical altercation following Game 4, and Paul shared his displeasure with the situation.
CP3 was awful in the two games in Dallas — 17 points and 11 assists with nine turnovers combined. This is a classic bounce-back spot in a crucial Game 5 at home, and I expect Paul to look to takeover the game late. He averaged 23.5 points in the two home games in this series on 18-of-29 shooting.
Dallas is coming off an insane 20-for-44 performance from downtown in Game 4, including 8-for-12 from Dorian Finney-Smith. That was with Luka Doncic going 1-of-10 from deep, leaving the role players shooting 19-for-34!
That shooting just has no chance of carrying over on the road, along with much stronger play from Paul. Suns will get this one done with margin.
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