The AT&T Byron Nelson is the second to last stop on the Texas Swing. Seven of the top-15 are in attendance, but this week is just the second time TPC Craig Ranch has hosted a PGA TOUR event, meaning we don’t have a ton of historical data on how the course will play. We know that last season, the cut line was 6-under par, and K.H. Lee (+10000) won in a shootout, recording a 25-under par en route to his maiden PGA TOUR victory.
When betting on easier courses, it’s okay to take more longshots than usual. Tom Hoge and Hudson Swafford were both about +10000 pre-tournament before winning the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and The American Express, respectively.
For a full course preview, key statistics breakdown and additional players to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook, refer to the DraftKings Preview on DraftKings Playbook. Here are the bets we should be considering this week.
All betting odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
It’s been a tough go for Power lately, missing four of his last six cuts. Still, the beginning of the year was much different, finishing 15th (Sentry TOC), third (Sony Open), 14th (The American Express) and ninth at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, where he led at the halfway mark shooting 8-under on both Thursday and Friday. Power ranks ninth in birdies or better gained and sixth in par 5 scoring over the previous 12 rounds on easy scoring courses relative to par. Hideki Matsuyama (+3500) is a bit of a risk this week dealing with neck/back issues, so he has a higher percentage of WD’ing than the typical golfer. Still, I’ll side with Matsuyama as an elite who may be a touch mispriced if he turns out to be healthy. Hideki is no stranger to playing well in Texas, finishing 39th (2021), 23rd (2019) and 16th (2018) at this tournament. A 30th at the Valero Texas Open preceded his Masters victory last season, and a runner-up at the Houston Open came off a weekend where he shot 66-63; all signs he can play in these conditions. Over his previous 12 rounds, he rates out 33rd in greens in regulation, 16th in birdies and 15th in approach. We know he’s a streaky putter, and that’s what we want this week, someone who can give a big pop on the greens. Two of Hideki’s top-15 putting weeks have come this season; the 2022 WM Phoenix Open (+3.5), where he finished eighth, and the 2022 Sony Open (+7.3), which he won.
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The Oklahoma native is another golfer who could perform well in easy scoring conditions. A 21-under at The CJ Cup resulted in a 5th-place, a month before his first victory, where he shot 22-under par at the RSM Classic (2021). Gooch also played well at the WM Phoenix Open, shooting 64-67 in rounds two and three. He can light it up with both his irons and putting, gaining 4.3 on the greens at THE PLAYERS and +6.3 through approach at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Winner of the other AT&T-sponsored event, Hoge should thrive once again in easy scoring conditions. Over his previous 12 rounds in easy scoring conditions, Hoge ranks 15th in approach and 12th in birdies gained. Top-5 at The RSM Classic, a runner-up at The American Express and a win at Pebble Beach should give Hoge confidence when he steps onto TPC Craig Ranch. His putting has been inconsistent, but he should be able to get it close on these big greens, ranking fifth in opportunities gained over the last 12 rounds. Matthew Wolff (+13000; Top 20 +400) is also a consideration in this range. It was great to see Wolff in contention last week, tied for 6th heading into Sunday, and ultimately finishing inside the top-25 for the first time in six months. Wolff shot 21-under par for his first win at the 3M Open (2021) and 20-under at TPC Summerlin at the Shriner’s Children’s Open (2022), finishing second. Another runner-up finish at TPC Summerlin shooting 23-under par indicates that he can go low in easy scoring conditions. Wolff is far off his ceiling, but last week could be the catalyst he needs to get back on track.
This week should be similar to the courses we’ve seen earlier in the year, where Putnam has finishes of 27th (Sony Open), 14th (The American Express) and sixth (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am). Over the previous 12 rounds on easy courses, Putnam ranks third in approach and 10th in putting, which should get him inside the top-40 if he’s able to find some form. The one cut he made in his last seven starts was at the Valero Texas Open, hopefully, a sign he likes playing in Texas.
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