After the Heat took the first two games of the series in South Beach, the 76ers bounced back with a pair of wins to level the series 2-2 heading into Tuesday night’s Game 5. It should be a great game to watch and will go a long way toward determining which of these two teams advances to the Eastern Conference Finals. As you build your fantasy basketball roster for DraftKings Tuesday night contests, check out some of my favorite options to consider for this Showdown slate below.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $120K Fadeaway [$30K to 1st] (PHI vs MIA)
Captain’s Picks
Jimmy Butler ($16,200) – Butler has been the most consistent player in this series, and with Joel Embiid ($11,400) at less than 100%, I think Butler is the best place to go if you pay up at Captain’s Pick. Butler had 40 points, six assists, three rebounds and 61.26 DKFP in Game 4, and he has posted over 50 DKFP in three straight contests. With Kyle Lowry ($6,600; hamstring) questionable and clearly less than 100% when available, Butler has taken over the primary play-making responsibilities and handed out 20 assists over the past three games. When you consider how many open three-pointers his teammates have been missing the past two games, that number is even more impressive since he could easily have had double-doubles in each game if the Heat were making their shots. If a return to Miami gets the rest of his team rejuvenated, Butler’s assist numbers should actually go up, and his multi-category upside potential to dominate gameflow makes him the top pick to build around for me.
Tyrese Maxey ($12,000) – Maxey has been outstanding in this series as he continues his breakout in the playoffs. If you don’t want to pay all the way up for Embiid or Butler as a Captain’s Pick, Maxey offers solid value and leaves you enough room to stick one or both of those players in a flex spot. James Harden ($10,200) turned back the clock for the fourth quarter of Game 4 and looked great, but Maxey has outplayed and ouproduced him for most of the postseason. In his 10 postseason games, the second year guard is averaging 0.85 DKFP per minute and producing 22.0 points, 4.2 assists, 3.6 rebounds while playing a massive 41.2 minutes per contest. His heavy workload gives him a high ceiling, and I’m not convinced Harden will be able to replicate his fourth quarter contributions, leaving more work for Maxey, who will likely be in a good matchup going against a reduced Lowry or his replacement while Butler focuses on limiting Harden.
Flex Plays
Bam Adebayo ($8,600) – Adebayo bounced back from an awful Game 3 and looked much more able to deal with Embiid in Game 4. He finished that contest as the Heat’s second-leading scorer with 21 points with seven rebounds and 35.25 DKFP. He unsurprisingly dominated the first two games of the series with Embiid sidelined, posting 51 and 40.25 DKFP, but he has also typically been better at home, so getting back to Miami and avoiding foul trouble could be the keys to him unlocking another game of 40 or even 50 DKFP.
Tyler Herro ($7,400) – The Heat keep listing Herro as questionable, but the guard hasn’t missed any playoff games with a bad ankle, and the injury doesn’t seem to be slowing him down. The Sixth Man of the Year has produced 0.92 DKFP per minute in the playoffs on 14.7 points, 4.7 rebounds and 3.1 assists. He will get more work if Lowry continues to struggle with his hamstring and his production was key in the Heat’s two wins and critically absent in the Heat’s two losses. There’s a chance he could have a ceiling game to put the Heat back up in the series, but he’ll need to find his shot after hitting just 9-of-27 (33.3%) of his field goal attempts in the two games in Philly.
Value Plays
Danny Green ($4,800) – The Sixers were better in Game 3 and Game 4 due to many factors—the largest of which is Embiid’s return—but one of the other reasons was the improved play of Green, who had 28.5 and 21.5 DKFP with double-digit scoring in each contest after managing just 12.0 and 9.5 DKFP in the first two games of the series. The veteran is playoff proven and found ways to contribute in the past two games. His defense keeps him on the floor and his shooting provides him a solid ceiling for a play under $5K.
Dewayne Dedmon ($1,000) – Dedmon missed Game 4 with a non-COVID illness, but if he is able to play in Game 5, he could end up being a solid play at the minimum salary. The Heat will need him to provide minutes down low against Embiid, and he’s a solid insurance policy in case Bam gets in foul trouble. He is averaging 1.0 DKFP per minute in his limited time on the floor in the playoffs but did play over 10 minutes in both Game 2 and Game 3. He’s the best punt play since both teams have tightened their rotations, and he does usually produce when he is on the floor.
Fades
Tobias Harris ($8,400) – Harris was a solid option early in this series with Embiid sidelined, producing 37.0 and 41.0 DKFP in the first two games of the series. With Embiid back and Harden more involved, his production dipped to 26.25 DKFP in Game 4. Harris definitely has upside, but he seems over-priced for the fourth-best option on the team. On the season, Harris produced 1.13 DKFP per minute with Embiid off the floor but only 0.88 DKFP per minute with Embiid on the floor. Since Embiid is back and likely to carry most of the workload with Maxey and Harden complementing, there probably won’t be enough work for Harris to live up to the potential his salary requires.
The Outcome
Embiid is gutting his way through multiple injuries in heroic fashion, and it’s nice that Harden cared enough to show up and save his team late in Game 4. The upside of those two at their best is still immense. However, due to Embiid’s injuries and Harden’s inconsistency, they’re hard to back with much confidence. Ultimately, it comes down to how much confidence you have in Embiid and Harden to be at peak performance, and I’m just not convinced they’re reliable enough. The Heat also have injury issues of their own, especially with Lowry, but Butler, Bam and “Heat Culture” are enough to make me think that coming home should be enough for them to win on their home floor in what should be a close and hard-fought game.
Final Score: Heat 105, 76ers 100
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