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Top scoring game environments on DraftKings Sportsbook
Wizards @ Hawks - 234
Nets @ Knicks - 229.5
Suns @ Clippers - 226.5
Over the last 15 games, the Hawks have been ninth in offensive pace, sixth in offensive rating and 17th in defensive rating. On the season, they have been a much better team at home, averaging 116.6 points per game (2nd in NBA) compared to 110.8 on the road (10th). The Wizards have been only 15th in offensive pace but they will likely have to keep up with the Hawks in this one. Their 24th-ranked defense should also make it easy for Atlanta to score. Add it all up and this game has the highest total on the slate.
The Nets and Knicks game is an interesting one. The Knicks have been playing at the 25th-slowest pace over the last 15 games while boasting the fifth-ranked defense. The Nets have been playing at the 10th-fastest pace and have had the second-best offense. Hallelujah, Kyrie! In three meetings this season, the totals were 217, 217 and 222.
As with the battle for New York, the Suns and Clippers have a similar divergence in terms of offensive pace. Over the last 15 games, the Suns have been fourth in offensive pace and ninth in offensive rating. They have also boasted the third-best defense over that span. The Clippers have been 29th in offensive pace. They have been 26th in defensive rating. In the prior three meetings for these teams, the totals were 199, 195 and 206. Paul George did not play in any of those games so he should provide an offensive boost.
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Scheduling Notes
2nd night of a back-to-back
Nets, Wizards, Hawks, Bulls, Thunder, Jazz, Suns
1st night of a back-to-back
Key Injuries to Monitor
Celtics SF/PF Jayson Tatum ($10,100) and SG/SF Jaylen Brown ($8,700) @ Bulls
Both Tatum and Brown are probable, so this is a 1 on the worry monitor scale. They are the only players of significance on the injury report, though. If for some reason they don’t play, then Derrick White ($5,500), Marcus Smart ($5,900) and Payton Pritchard ($3,900) would see an increase in usage rate.
Favorite Pick Against the Spread
Pistons +8.5 vs. Mavericks - (-110)
The Mavericks are a really good team, especially ATS. On the season, they have the fourth-best mark and eight-best cover rate on the road. The Pistons haven’t been good for much of the season but they’ve picked it up lately. Over the last 15 games, they have had the sixth-best defense and have won three straight, with one of those being against the 76ers. More importantly for our purposes, they have covered ATS in the last five games. Over the last 22 games, they have been 19-3 ATS.
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Favorite Player Prop
K. Irving: 5+ Threes Made - (+300)
Yes, I’m a sucker for these special bets. What can I say? Over the last seven games, Irving has averaged 40.5 minutes and 10.3 three-pointers a game, making 4.4. In the last two games, he’s attempted 16 and 14 while making 8 and 7 respectively. On the season, the Knicks have allowed the seventh-most three-point attempts per game. Now, they have been pretty good at neutralizing the efficiency, as they have been sixth-best in three-point percentage, but I’m going with the volume heat check with Kyrie here.
Favorite Value Play
Thunder PG Zavier Simpson ($3,000) @ Jazz
Simpson received the start on Tuesday and played 44 minutes, contributing 10 points, three rebounds, five assists, one steal and two blocks. That was good for 26.3 DKFP. He should get the start again and play a ton of minutes as the commander of Operation Tank, and minutes are half the battle. Yo, Joe! He’s also priced at the minimum. Yo, Zavier!
Favorite Stud
Mavericks PG Luka Doncic ($12,000) @ Pistons
Over the last six games, Doncic has scored at least 50 DKFP in each contest with two above 70. He’s performed in close games, blowouts, on the road and at home. In a 32-point drubbing by the Wizards, he played 37 minutes while in an 18-point win over the Lakers, Doncic received 30 minutes of run. The usage rate has been over 40% in four of those contests and he’s scored at least 30 points in five straight. Doncic is a threat to triple-double on any given night and I do think the Pistons can make this a competitive affair, which is a good thing for the fantasy prospects of Doncic.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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