Fantasy Basketball Picks: Top DraftKings NBA DFS Targets for Bucks vs. Celtics Showdown on May 1

The two-seed Boston Celtics host the three-seed Milwaukee Bucks in the first game of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Celtics favored by 4.5 points with the total at 217.5. The teams split the regular season series at two apiece with the home team prevailing in every contest. Giannis Antetokounmpo did miss one of those games.

Let’s go over the fantasy outlook for the game for Showdown contests on DraftKings.

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $100K Fadeaway [$25K to 1st] (MIL vs BOS)

Captain’s Picks

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($18,600) - Giannis averages 1.72 DKFP per minute and has the highest floor/ceiling combo on the slate. The Celtics had the best defensive rating during the regular season and held Giannis to 34.5 DKFP the first time they faced each other. In the next two games, he went for 63 and 55.75 DKFP. Giannis literally does it all and has a usage rate in the 34% area. He’s going to get his. It’s just a matter of how much.

Marcus Smart ($11,400) - There is volatility with Smart and the floor is low. He only averages 0.91 DKFP per minute and went for fewer than 30 DKFP 37 times. He did go over 40 DKFP 13 times, though. He’s going to dish out assists and rack up defensive stats, but the rebounds, field goal attempts and efficiency are the wild cards. In four games against Milwaukee during the regular season, he put up 42.5, 24.75, 46.75 and 33.5 DKFP. The popular captains will be Giannis and Jayson Tatum, so this is a way to differentiate at what should be lower ownership.

FLEX Plays

Jrue Holiday ($9,800) - Holiday averages 1.13 DKFP per minute and usually languishes in the high-30 to low-40 DKFP range. He does contribute in every category and has the potential for ceiling games. During the regular season, he went over 50 DKFP nine times with a high of 60.25. Against the Celtics, he put up 50.5, 39, 37.25 and 59.5 DKFP. With Khris Middleton out, Holiday and Giannis will be carrying most of the offensive load, and Holiday saw a usage bump of 4.5% to 28.4%.

Value

Grant Williams ($4,000) - Williams is a low-usage, 3-and-D player. That said, he’s become a valuable member of the rotation due to his defensive versatility and ability to stretch the floor on offense. He played over 30 minutes in the last three games of the Brooklyn series and received 16, 29 and 37 minutes in three regular season matchups with the Bucks, with more playing time in each meeting. He produced 26.8, 16.8 and 30 DKFP in the Nets series and went for 9.5, 29.5 and 24 DFKP against Milwaukee.

Fades

Bobby Portis ($7,800) - Portis was great filling in for Middleton in the series with Chicago. He played 25, 33 and 32 minutes, contributing 41, 28.5 and 37.8 DKFP. He’s always been able to put the ball in the hoop and will grab his share of boards, but he does little in the other categories. He should get the minutes but the Celtics are a tough matchup for him, as they neutralized the FPPM to small forwards by 10.58% below the league average, fourth-best in the NBA.

Grayson Allen ($5,400) - Allen was fantastic in the last three games of the series with Chicago. He scored at least 20 points in two of the three contests and went for 23.3, 38.5 and 36 DKFP. With defenses collapsing on Giannis and the Bucks pushing the pace, Allen received a ton of good looks. In the first game against the Celtics during the regular season, Allen put up 30 DKFP as he shot 5-for-9 from downtown and finished with 21 points. In the next two games, though, he went for 19.25 and 11 DKFP. As the season progressed, the Celtics defense morphed into the best in the league. Against shooting guards, they suppressed 3-pointers by 13.87% below the league average and allowed the third-lowest conversion rate at 33.9%.

The Outcome

The Celtics swept the Nets and have only lost 12 games since the start of the new year. They have the best defense in the league and were ninth in offensive efficiency. They are intimately familiar with Giannis and know how to employ a wall against him. In addition, Al Horford has historically played well against him. The home team won every game in the regular season and I see that trend continuing.

Final score: Celtics 111, Bucks 105

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $100K Fadeaway [$25K to 1st] (MIL vs BOS)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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