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Saturday has its normal full day of MLB action, but we’re focusing on those late-afternoon, early-evening games on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Cleveland Guardians at Oakland Athletics
Jose Ramirez over 1.5 total bases +105
Ramirez has been cooking lately, going 6-for-16 with three home runs and two doubles in Cleveland’s last four games. So there’s a chase component to this pick, but he’s also in a good matchup against Cole Irvin.
Ramirez definitely hits right-handed pitching better, but his .286 ISO and .367 wOBA against lefties show he has no problem getting into one no matter who he’s facing. Moreover, his above average hard-contact rate and rock-bottom soft-contact rate combined with his .167 BABIP against lefties indicate he’s due for much more success against left-handers. And with Irvin sporting a 5.04 FIP on the year, Oakland’s left-hander is due for some regression.
Athletics FFI under 1.5 runs -140
Shane Bieber may have given up three runs in his loss vs. the Angels, but he still only held them to one run over the first five innings. With that showing against one of the best teams against right-handed pitching, Bieber is now 4-for-4 on this play to start 2022. Making it 5-for-5 on Saturday vs. Oakland shouldn’t be a problem.
The A’s are bottom 10 in OPS and ISO against right-handed pitching. They also have a .130 ISO against righties. Oakland’s .274 BABIP against right-handers doesn’t indicate much improvement is on the horizon either; nor does the 29.1% hard-contact rate against righties the A’s are rocking.
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San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates
Eric Hosmer over 1.5 total bases +140
Hosmer’s hot streak stopped short in Pittsburgh on Friday with his 0-for-3, two-walk performance. He’d been riding a small four-game hitting streak, but he also had two hits in each of those games — including his first two home runs of the season.
Hosmer isn’t the typical type of bat to target on these plays, given he only has eight extra-base hits on the season. But, he’s thrived against right-handed pitching this season (.974 OPS and .428 wOBA), and JT Brubaker has struggled against left-handed hitting. Although the right-hander has generated quite a bit of soft contact from lefties, Brubaker has a 42.1% hard-contact rate against lefties in the early going — which explains their .370 wOBA against him.
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