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See Julian’s full analysis in the links below:
Kayvon Thibodeaux OVER 5.5
I think Thibs falls out of the top-five for a couple of reasons that are working in his favor. First, let’s stay on the field and look at the teams drafting in the top-five.
Most of the teams drafting near the top of the board are looking for help on offense. This is a great draft for offensive lineman, and a lot of these teams have young/recently drafted quarterbacks to protect.
It seems like the only realistic landing spot in the top-five would be the New York Jets at No. 4. That said, the Jets are one of those teams that should be looking to help out Zach Wilson with this pick, especially after he finally showed a bit of promise to end the season.
Potentially more importantly, Thibodeaux has reportedly been awful in his interviews. Teams are worried about his ego, building his brand and if his real focus is actually on football. That has to be a massive red flag when investing a top-five pick in someone.
I see Thibs going late in the top-10, if he even cracks that number.
Kenny Pickett OVER 16.5
I wound up putting Pickett out as a play on Twitter on Friday, getting him at O12.5. I was hoping to write him up after the weekend, but his prop started to fly to the over. That said, if you’re still looking to get in on the action, Pickett shouldn’t go in the top-16 picks.
This is a very weak QB class, with none in the 2022 class that would’ve been selected in the top five or six among QB in the 2021 class. Nobody is going to select one in the top-10, and nobody is going to trade up higher than the top-15 to use on a QB. The New Orleans Saints do select at No. 16 and 19 and could potentially use a QB. But they have invested in Jameis Winston already, so maybe it’s smart to just wait for another year and a stronger class. The Pittsburgh Steelers select at No. 20, and although they’ve been strongly linked to Malik Willis, this could be a landing spot for Pickett if Willis is gone. The Pittsburgh connection to the Pitt Panther makes sense, but this range of 19 and 20 would cash us our overs.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see Pickett go as late at No. 32, so even sacrificing some value, I think O16.5 cashes.
Zion Johnson UNDER 24.5
Zion Johnson’s prop was 26.5 a while back, but given all the rave reviews on him during the draft process, his prop only dropping two spots seems light. There are no elite prospects at the top of this draft, unlike recent years with a Joe Burrow or Trevor Lawrence at the top of the board. It sounds like we could see a run on offensive tackles early in this draft, a safer position and a need for a lot of these teams picking early.
Johnson is a guard from Boston College, and maybe the best interior lineman in this draft. I think his range starts once we get into the teens, as there are a few teams picking in there that could use the help on the inside to protect their young quarterbacks.
So where is our safety net on Zion? A couple of teams in the 20s should be his floor. Johnson reportedly interviews very well and is a prospect that jumped out to a lot of teams, including the New England Patriots. Zion is obviously local to the Pats, so they should have a good feel for him. New England selects at No. 21.
And finally, the Dallas Cowboys do need to address the offensive line, and hold a key selection here at No. 24. That feels like a safe floor to cash this one by the hook if it gets there.
John Metchie UNDER 56.5
If you watch much college football, Metchie is probably a name you know from his time at Alabama. He played on some tremendous teams over the last few seasons, including behind Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith on the 2020 National Championship team. Metchie then got his time to shine in 2021, playing opposite Jameson Williams for the Crimson Tide. He finished the season with 96 grabs for 1,142 yards and eight touchdowns.
Metchie was playing his best football down the stretch, hauling in 10 passes for 173 yards against Arkansas and then 13 for 150 in the season finale against Auburn. Metchie tore his ACL in the SEC Championship game against Georgia, but was a big factor in the upset victory, racking up six receptions for 97 yards and a score.
Metchie clearly has a role as a very good slot receiver in the NFL, and with the rush on the position in this draft, I expect him to be off the board in the top-half of the second-round. We could see seven WR go in the first-round on Thursday, and some teams drafting early on Friday are in contention to select Metchie.
My guess is he goes by the end of the 40’s in this draft, but if Metchie is indeed available in the 50s, there’s some realistic landing spots. The Philadelphia Eagles have No. 51, The Green Bay Packers select No. 53, the New England Patriots are on the clock at No. 54 and the Dallas Cowboys are up at No. 56.
I put out Metchie at U59.5 earlier on Twitter, but think 56.5 is a very play-able number.
Malik Willis OVER 13.5
I wound up putting Willis out as a play on Twitter on Friday, getting plus-money on O10.5. I was hoping to write him up after the weekend, but his prop really took off. That said, unless someone loves him enough to trade up to picks 11-13, I don’t think we’re sacrificing value here.
Given how poor this QB class is in comparison to the last two, it’s becoming increasingly likely that we not only don’t see a QB go in the top-10, but the first one comes off the board in the late-teens/early-twenties.
Willis is a solid prospect with a good arm and elite athleticism, but he would’ve been the sixth QB off the board in the 2021 class at best. Selecting him in the top-10, or even top-13, feels like a reach. Again, trades can happen, but unless someone really jumps up the board, a feeling is taking over that we may not see a QB go until we see the New Orleans Saints select at No. 16 and 19 or the Pittsburgh Steelers select at No. 20.
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