Follow along on Twitter (@julianedlow) for any potential updates — things can change rapidly leading up to a draft based on news and information.
Each article I write up will feature one NFL Draft prop available on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Betting drafts is a completely different animal than betting the outcome of games. There are no winners or losers. No refs or bad beats. It’s about tracking an information based market and using what you’re able to gather to find an edge on the board. These articles will all feature one NFL Draft prop that I feel is worth locking in at the time of publication and those specific odds. But things can change, and that means hedging and placing bets that contradict some of our previous bets could come into play, all with the intention of profiting on draft weekend. The draft market has been very good to us the last couple of years. Let’s looks to keep building!
NFL Draft Position Prop
I’m getting started later on NFL Draft stuff than I’d hoped to, and that means missing the best number on some of our plays. That said, there’s still some value on the board as we approach Thursday’s NFL Draft.
I wound up putting Pickett out as a play on Twitter on Friday, getting him at O12.5. I was hoping to write him up after the weekend, but his prop started to fly to the over. That said, if you’re still looking to get in on the action, Pickett shouldn’t go in the top-16 picks.
This is a very weak QB class, with none in the 2022 class that would’ve been selected in the top five or six among QB in the 2021 class. Nobody is going to select one in the top-10, and nobody is going to trade up higher than the top-15 to use on a QB. The New Orleans Saints do select at No. 16 and 19 and could potentially use a QB. But they have invested in Jameis Winston already, so maybe it’s smart to just wait for another year and a stronger class. The Pittsburgh Steelers select at No. 20, and although they’ve been strongly linked to Malik Willis, this could be a landing spot for Pickett if Willis is gone. The Pittsburgh connection to the Pitt Panther makes sense, but this range of 19 and 20 would cash us our overs.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see Pickett go as late at No. 32, so even sacrificing some value, I think O16.5 cashes.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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