Follow along on Twitter (@julianedlow) for any potential updates — things can change rapidly leading up to a draft based on news and information.
Each article I write up will feature one NFL Draft prop available on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Betting drafts is a completely different animal than betting the outcome of games. There are no winners or losers. No refs or bad beats. It’s about tracking an information based market and using what you’re able to gather to find an edge on the board. These articles will all feature one NFL Draft prop that I feel is worth locking in at the time of publication and those specific odds. But things can change, and that means hedging and placing bets that contradict some of our previous bets could come into play, all with the intention of profiting on draft weekend. The draft market has been very good to us the last couple of years. Let’s looks to keep building!
NFL Draft Position Prop
I’m getting started later on NFL Draft stuff than I’d hoped to, and that means missing the best number on some of our plays. That said, there’s still some value on the board as we approach Thursday’s NFL Draft.
I wound up putting Willis out as a play on Twitter on Friday, getting plus-money on O10.5. I was hoping to write him up after the weekend, but his prop really took off. That said, unless someone loves him enough to trade up to picks 11-13, I don’t think we’re sacrificing value here.
Given how poor this QB class is in comparison to the last two, it’s becoming increasingly likely that we not only don’t see a QB go in the top-10, but the first one comes off the board in the late-teens/early-twenties.
Willis is a solid prospect with a good arm and elite athleticism, but he would’ve been the sixth QB off the board in the 2021 class at best. Selecting him in the top-10, or even top-13, feels like a reach. Again, trades can happen, but unless someone really jumps up the board, a feeling is taking over that we may not see a QB go until we see the New Orleans Saints select at No. 16 and 19 or the Pittsburgh Steelers select at No. 20.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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