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Baseball is back to playing afternoon games, so that brings the slate tonight down to eight. We will talk about it here, so read it.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jordan Montgomery, $7,500, New York Yankees (-255) vs. Baltimore Orioles (+205) — The Yankees were huge favorites last night and it looked that way, for a while. The Orioles stormed back and made this a much closer game, which ended in a score of 12-8. Tonight, the Yankees are the big favorites again but I can’t say I’m loving it. While it hasn’t shown on the field thus far, the Orioles are a much better team against lefties than it looks. Coming into this game, the O’s have just an 87 wRC+, a .286 wOBA, and a .074 ISO. Not great at all, right? However, when you look at the numbers from last year, they ended the year with a 102 wRC+, a .174 ISO, and a .321 wOBA. I’m not saying this is a “bad” spot for Montgomery but this Orioles team is 100% underperforming in these types of matchups. I wouldn’t be looking to back the Yankees in this spot but I would be interested in taking the over 8 runs that is currently set for the game.
Highest Projected Total
Boston Red Sox (+125; 3.5 team total) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-145; 4.5 team total) 8.5 runs— This was one of the favorite games to go over last night but took extra innings to make it. This once again feels a bit low, which has been the case lately. Michael Wacha ($9,400) is taking on Ross Stripling ($6,200) in Toronto tonight, which has the Blue Jays as favorites with an implied team total of 4.5 runs. While his numbers on the surface look good, his 1.88 ERA is coupled with a 4.68 FIP and a 4.4 BB/9. As seen last night, this is not a club you can afford to make a mistake against and between Wacha and the struggling Red Sox bullpen, the Jays are in a great spot to exceed their team total. Meanwhile, the Red Sox offense showed some signs of life late in the game but continue to sputter on offense. As a team against righties, the Sox have a putrid 77 wRC+, a .275 wOBA, and a .124 ISO. I would be taking the over on the Blue Jays team total and leaving the overall total on the board.
Weather Notes
No weather concerns!
April 27, 2022 Betting Splits
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Follow me on Twitter @SBuchanan24 for daily updates on these splits.
Splits to Start
These stats reflect 2021 numbers until May 1.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, FIP, wOBA
Cristian Javier, 5.43, .333
Erick Fedde, 5.16, .354
Ross Stripling, 4.68, .315
Best vs. LHB, FIP, wOBA
Tyler Wells, 1.93, .208
Charlie Morton, 2.94, .255
Pablo Lopez, 3.15, .289
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, FIP, wOBA
Ross Stripling, 5.54, .347
Paul Blackburn, 5.45, .364
Zach Plesac, 5.01, .329
Best vs. RHB, FIP, wOBA
Shohei Ohtani, 2.43, .245
Charlie Morton, 3.40, .271
Pablo Lopez, 3.42, .297
Lineup Starters
Pitcher to Build Around
Pablo Lopez, Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals, $9,900 - Lopez has been crusing upward in salary since the season began and he’s topped out at $9,900 ahead of this start. It’s a great spot against the Nationals, who have been subpar at best against righties. On the year, they have just a .288 wOBA, .108 ISO and a 86 wRC+. The Nationals also land around league average when it comes to strikeouts, sitting with a K% of 22.8%. Depsite the expensive price tag, he has a very strong chance of returning value in this game.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Jazz Chisholm Jr, Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals, $5,300 — Looking to target against Erick Fedde ($7,800) who has been consistently posting some poor numbers vs. lefties. We’ve seen Jazz batting in the leadoff spot for the past five games now, so I wouldn’t expect him hitting elsewhere. With Feede, he comes into this game with a 5.19 FIP, a 1.8 HR/9 and a .359 wOBA vs. left-handed bats. Jazz has come out of the gate hitting for a ton of power, boasting a .388 ISO.
Save Big by Drafting
Trey Mancini, Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankes, $2,600 — This is just too cheap for Mancini, as I mentioned in the section about about this game. This O’s team has some strong bats against lefties and Mancini is one of them. Hitting in a prime spot in the O’s lineup, Mancini has already put together a .434 wOBA, a .208 ISO and a 191 wRC+ against lefties.
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