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MLB Picks for April 27: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Nick Friar provides MLB betting trends along with his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for April 27.

MLB: Houston Astros at Texas Rangers Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Full slate of MLB action on tap for Wednesday. Let’s get things rolling with the very first game on the schedule.

Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals

Cardinals FFI under 1.5 runs -115

Carlos Carrasco has been very strong in the early going, only allowing 11 batters to reach base via a hit or walk through 18 1/3 innings of work. That’s only manifested into three runs, and he’s yet to give up two-plus through the first five innings of any outing.

On Wednesday, Carrasco faces a lineup that’s struggled against right-handed pitching and not done much this series. The Cardinals have a .597 OPS, .278 wOBA and .083 ISO against righties to start 2022. Each of those marks rank among the bottom 10 in baseball.

Furthermore, the Cardinals have the highest soft-contact rate against right-handed pitching and the lowest hard-contact rate. And while taking Carrasco to log over 5.5 strikeouts (+120) is worth considering, St. Louis’ FFI total is the better way to back the right-hander because the Cardinals, for all their struggles with right-handed pitching, only have a 20.6% strikeout rate against righties.

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Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays

Marco Gonzales under 17.5 outs recorded +105

Tampa had a late offensive surge in Tuesday’s loss vs. the Mariners, and now they’ll face a lefty who’s only made it through five innings twice this season. Don’t be fooled by Marco Gonzales’ 3.29 ERA. As much as he’s generating a lot of ground balls and limiting hard contact, he’s getting hurt on the pitches hitters are getting under (23.5% home run to fly ball rate).

After seeing a Rangers lineup that hits lefties well, Gonzales has to face an even less lefty-friendly lineup in Tampa. The Rays are just outside the top 10 in ISO against left-handed pitching, but they’re top four in both OPS and wOBA.

Houston Astros at Texas Rangers

Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 total bases +120

The hulking Houston lefty has had a strong series (came through on Monday for those who follow along on Twitter). He’s crushing right-handed pitchers, posting a 1.023 OPS against them in the early going. But that’s not even Alvarez’s most impressive stat. He also has a cartoonish .448 ISO to go with a .433 wOBA against righties to start the year. And when you look at his absurd 48% hard-hit rate against right-handers, it’s no shock to see him producing at such a high level.

Rangers starting pitcher Glenn Otto has only made the one start this season, so there’s only so much to read into from 2022. Although, despite his strong showing last time out, the few lefty hitters he saw in that game did make solid contact against him. And that does track with what happened in 2021, when lefties only had a soft-hit rate of eight percent against Otto.

Adding one more thing to the small amount of Otto-related numbers we have: Alvarez is 2-for-5 against the righty, both hits being doubles. Add it all up, and Alvarez is in position to experience success on Wednesday.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is dk-nfriar) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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