Following the team-based Zurich Classic, the PGA TOUR returns to standard stroke play golf this week at the inaugural Mexico Open. For the next three seasons, this event will take place at the Signature Course (par 71, 7, 456 yards, Paspalum) of the Vidanta Vallarta Resort. Playing as a par 71 instead of a par 73 this week, the Signature Course is one of the longest tracks on the schedule this season. Combine this course’s length with its wide fairways and thin rough, and bombers should have an advantage this week.
Water comes into play on 11 of the 18 holes, and there are 106 bunkers on site, mostly littered around the greens. Furthermore, given the Signature Course is located on the Ameca River, the coastal winds are almost guaranteed to be a huge factor. While they are different based on length, the El Camaleon Golf Course used for the World Technologies Championship – formerly known as the Mayakoba Classic and the OHL Classic – is a course that has strong correlation to the Signature Course. Both oceanside par 71s are located in Mexico, feature Paspalum greens and most importantly, were designed by Greg Norman.
While Jon Rahm will be in attendance this week, the Mexico Open’s field is easily one of the worst groups of golfers we will see all season. Including the Spaniard, only three of the top-30 ranked players in the world will be bringing their talents to the Signature Course. Still, DraftKings is offering up some huge GPPs for DFS players to attack and below are four of my top bargain plays of the week that are priced under $7.5K.
Tyler Duncan, $7,200
Duncan has carded a top-30 finish in three of his last four starts. His most recent result was a T12 at the RBC Heritage two weeks ago, which featured a closing round 6-under 65. At Harbour Town Golf Links that week, Duncan gained strokes in every major category, including 6.1 strokes from T2G, which is the most he has produced since the 2020 U.S. Open. When we compare this field’s last 24 rounds, Duncan ranks 15th in SGT2G, 13th in SG OTT and 19th in bogeys avoided.
If you weren’t already sold on him based on his current form, Duncan loves competing in Mexico, owning a spotless 5/5 record in terms of made cuts at El Camaleon. In this weak field, Duncan has the potential for a top-20 finish.
Nick Taylor, $7,100
This is a great time to buy low on Taylor while most will stay away, given he has missed back-to-back cuts. Despite heading home early at those two tournaments, the 34-year-old gained strokes on APP in both starts. Additionally, before this small rough patch, Taylor had only missed one cut in his previous 10 starts, and for his career, the Canadian boasts a 7/10 record when competing at courses that are home to Paspalum greens.
Each week, I love comparing outright odds to DFS salaries to find value plays, and Taylor is one of the best examples I have found this season. On DraftKings Sportsbook, the veteran carries +6500 odds to win the Mexico Open, which are better odds than Russell Knox, who is significantly more expensive for DFS purposes at $9,200.
Ryan Armour, $6,900
After posting a season-best T15 finish at the Corales Puntacana Championship – which was held on Paspalum greens – Armour recorded a respectable T36 this past week at the Zurich Classic with Michael Gligic as his teammate. Armour has now generated a top-30 finish in three of his last five individual starts and ranks seventh in both bogeys avoided and SG OTT across his past 24 rounds.
Armour has a tendency to shine in weaker fields and is far too cheap for his upside this week.
Robert Garrigus, $6,600
With this week presenting a brand new course that we have no previous data on, taking some gambles in this low price range makes a ton of sense for GPPs, bringing me to Garrigus. The veteran has made six consecutive cuts at standard stroke play events, with the last two starts of this stretch both coming at venues that feature the rare Paspalum putting surface.
No player in this field has gained more strokes on par 5s than Garrigus when we analyze all these golfers’ last 24 rounds, and the 44-year-old has also been long OTT during this span, ranking 25th in driving distance. In this form, Garrigus should be able to grind out a made cut at the Signature Course, which would be an immense return for a player this inexpensive.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Hunta512) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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