After a light day on Monday, baseball is back in full swing on Tuesday. All 30 MLB teams will be in action, giving us plenty of opportunities to look for value in the betting market.
Rockies ML (+125)
The Phillies were able to secure a win over the Rockies on Monday, but these teams have had wildly different results to start the year. The Rockies are currently sitting at 10-6, while the Phillies have slumped to a 7-10 record.
I like the idea of buying low on the Rockies on Tuesday. They’ll have German Marquez on the mound, who was once considered a high-end starter. Pitching his home games in Coors Field obviously doesn’t help his traditional numbers, but he’s had a 3.28 and 3.86 FIP in each of the past two years. He’s off to a subpar start this season, but he’s yet to pitch anywhere but Coors.
The Phillies made some substantial upgrades to their offense during the offseason, but they have yet to pay dividends. They ranked merely 16th in wRC+ heading into Monday’s start, and while there are reasons to believe in improvement, there isn’t a ton of reason to fear them at the moment.
The Phillies will turn to Zach Eflin, who is an extremely average pitcher. He doesn’t strike out many batters, which means he relies on good batted-ball luck for outs. That’s always a risky strategy, especially in a hitter-friendly park like Citizens Bank Park. The Rockies also put a ton of balls in play – they have the seventh-lowest strikeout rate and fifth-lowest walk rate – so expect there to be plenty of action vs. Eflin. I’ll take my chances with the Rockies at +125.
Under 7.5 Runs (-120)
Unders have absolutely dominated to start the 2022 season. Entering Monday’s action, unders were a whopping 138-88-11 to start the year. That’s good for a +16.0% return on investment, and a $100 bettor would be up $3,600 if they bet the under on every game this year.
This seems like another great spot to fade the offenses. Neither the Marlins nor Nationals are expected to be very good in that department this season, and both squads rank in the bottom-12 in xwOBA per Baseball Savant.
Both teams also have quality young pitchers on the mound on Tuesday. Sandy Alcantara has emerged as the team’s ace, and he’s pitched to a sparkling 1.82 ERA through his first three starts. Josiah Gray doesn’t have the same reputation yet, but he certainly has the pedigree. He was considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, and he was the centerpiece of the trade that sent Trea Turner and Max Scherzer to Los Angeles. Gray struggled in his first taste of major league action last year, but he’s pitched to a 3.14 ERA and an 11.3 K/9 through three starts this season.
Given the way the season has gone, I like the idea of backing the pitching in this matchup.
Mets ML (-110)
This is an early-season matchup between two teams with big playoff aspirations. Both teams are off to strong starts, so this should be an entertaining contest.
The Mets will have Chris Bassitt on the mound, who is coming off his worst start of the season. He allowed five earned runs over six innings, but saying he was bad is probably an overstatement. The Statcast data shows the Giants were significantly lucky in that matchup. They had a .389 batting average on balls in play despite a pedestrian 80.3 mile per hour average exit velocity. Overall, his 2.88 xFIP was significantly better than his 7.50 ERA. Despite the rough outing, Bassitt still owns an outstanding 2.81 xERA this season.
The Cardinals will go to reliever-turned-starter Jordan Hicks, who has overpowering stuff at times. Still, being asked to pitch multiple innings instead of one is always a tough transition. The Mets entered Monday’s matchup first in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching, so I think they have an edge on the mound and in the batter’s box.
Tigers ML (+120)
I’m writing this article late on Monday evening, but the Tigers are garnering early sharp support. They’ve received 98% of the early moneyline dollars on just 65% of the bets, which is a pretty significant discrepancy.
They’ll hand the ball to their big free agent acquisition Eduardo Rodriguez on Tuesday. He hasn’t had a great start to his Tigers tenure, pitching to a 5.27 ERA through his first three starts, but he’s had an xERA of 3.79 or better in each of the past five years. He has a track record of being a quality starter, so he should see some positive regression moving forward. I’m happy to trust the sharps on this one.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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