Wednesday is here. A seven-game slate is here. My article about it is here. So, here.
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Editor’s Note: Tonight’s game between the Rays and the Cubs has been shifted to a 6:30 p.m. ET first pitch due to inclement weather. The players in this game will not receive fantasy points.
DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Logan Gilbert, $9,800, Seattle Mariners (-155) vs. Texas Rangers (+135) — If you’re looking for a resounding favorite on this slate, you’re not going to get one. At -155, the Mariners are the biggest favorites on this slate, as they continue their series against the Rangers. Gilbert has arguably been the Mariners best starter to this point and the numbers back it up, as he’s posted a 2.75 FIP, a 9.9 K/9 and an 11.2% swing-and-miss rate. Now he takes on the Rangers in his first home start, a team that’s been one of the bets scoring offenses with 5.1 runs per game.
While the Rangers did get off to a hot offensive start, they’ve scored just seven runs over the last three games against the Angels and Mariners last night. What’s good about this matchup is that Gilbert has been extremely tough on left-handed bats, which is something the Rangers have many of. When facing a righty, the Rangers have showcased between four to five lefties in their lineup. In that matchup, Gilbert has posted a .281 wOBA, a 3.21 FIP, a 9.4 K/9 and just a 0.90 HR/9 since coming up last year. This should be a good spot for the Mariners starter and I’d be comfortable backing them.
Highest Projected Total
Tampa Bay Rays (-120; 4.5 team total) at Chicago Cubs (+100; 4.5 team total) 9 runs— Tonight doesn’t feature a game total over nine runs, so I chose this one as the over was set at -115 at the time of this writing. This game does have the potential to be delayed with rain in the forecast as well as winds blowing out around 19mph. Both teams have a team total of 4.5 runs, with the Cubs at +110 to go over and the Rays at -120.
I’ll be honest, I don’t have a solid feel for either side in this one. Marcus Stroman ($7,600) is a ground ball inducing machine. Through his first two starts, he’s sitting at a 52% rate and only a 26.4% fly ball rate. That said, the Rockies were able to tag him for five runs through four innings. Can we blame him through, as this game took place in Coors Field? Stroman wasn’t entirely to blame either, as his 11.25 ERA in that game equated to a 5.05 FIP.
Meanwhile, Drew Rasmussen ($7,100) has been okay? Nine innings, eight hits, five runs and five strikeouts allowed thus far. He’s not a fantasy relevant pitcher at the juncture, as his minor league stats haven’t translated to the majors. He’s been able to minimize the damage thus far and he’s not exactly someone I would go out of my way to target against. In all, I think this game is not one I want to target, despite the high total.
Weather Notes
Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago Cubs — Rain is in the forecast all throughout the night so this may never even start. If it does, they’ll likely be dealing with a delay at some point. Winds blowing out at 19mph.
April 20, 2022 Betting Splits
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Follow me on Twitter @SBuchanan24 for daily updates on these splits.
Splits to Start
These stats reflect 2021 numbers until May 1.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, FIP, wOBA
Erick Fedde, 5.16, .354
Nick Pivetta, 4.48, .320
Jose Berrios, 4.02, .336
Best vs. LHB, FIP, wOBA
Carlos Rodon, 1.55, .260
Drew Rasmussen, 2.45, .239
Logan Gilbert, 3.21, .285
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, FIP, wOBA
Daniel Lynch, 5.14, .381
Merrill Kelly, 4.48, .356
Dane Dunning, 4.31, .334
Best vs. RHB, FIP, wOBA
Chris Bassitt, 2.83, .282
Carlos Rodon, 2.92, .244
Jose Berrios, 2.99, .240
Lineup Starters
Pitcher to Build Around
Chris Bassitt, New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants, $9,600 - The lowest game total on this slate belongs to the Mets and Giants, who have a stellar pitching matchup scheduled. You can take Carlos Rodon ($10,200), who is the most expensive pitcher on the slate OR go with a bit cheaper Bassitt. Personally, I think Bassitt is in the better matchup against the Giants over Rodon against the Mets. Bassitt is facing a team that’s been much more generous in the strikeout department, doing so 24% of the time against righties. The overall offensive numbers are good with a .328 wOBA, a .169 ISO and a 114 wRC+ but Bassitt has been nearly untouchable thus far. Through 12 innings he’s posted a 2.96 FIP, a 10.5 K/9 and a 12.6% swing-and-miss rate.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Carlos Correa, Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals, $4,900 — I really like this spot for the Correa against Royals starter Daniel Lynch ($5,500). When facing a righty, Lynch really put up some poor numbers, which included a .381 wOBA, a 5.14 FIP, a 1.3 H/9 and just a 7.5 K/9. Meanwhile, Correa would thrive in these types of matchups, with a .368 wOBA, a 138 wRC+ and a .156 ISO. Correa also rarely struck out against lefties with a 14.5% K% in those matchups. For a hitter that’s under $5K, I like this play a lot.
Save Big by Drafting
Daulton Varsho, Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals, $3,500 — Not exactly going out of my way to get a number of D-Back players in my lineup but, I think Varsho is a fine play tonight. He’s been seeing time in the leadoff spot and that’ll work for us, taking on Erick Fedde ($8,300). His numbers against lefties were always a reason to use the opposing hitters, as he had a .354 wOBA, a 5.16 FIP, 1.7 HR/9 and an 8.9 K/9. Varsho has been hitting well lately, averaging 9.0 DKFP over his last five games, which include two home runs and three runs scored.
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