Chase Briscoe clearly did not bet on himself to beat Daniel Suarez. He doesn’t appear to be a “Featured Matchup” guy. The all-or-nothing slide job attempt on Sunday night turned a second-place finish into a 22nd-place finish and a losing bet. The Best Bets went 2-2, which isn’t bad for a chaotic dirt race. Unfortunately, there won’t be any less chaos this week.
As always, trust the spreadsheet but also trust your eyes. Here are the best bets for the NASCAR Cup Series GEICO 500 at Talladega, which gets underway Sunday, April 24 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
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GEICO 500 Race Winner
Martin Truex Jr. +4000
Hands down, this has been the craziest NASCAR schedule in years, if not ever. Even the normal races have been quirky in the 2022 rules package. However, the quasi-normal races represent the minority, the majority of races have been plate races, but don’t forget to throw in a road course that is new to the circuit and a dirt track. This is a week to get weird and hope to hit a big one. It’s Talladega and it’s been a strange season, so the weirder the better.
Martin Truex doesn’t seem weird to the casual fan, but those that are dialed-in know that Truex is a terrible or terribly unlucky plate racer. That’s why he is +4000. He has the car, the team and talent. He just needs a little luck. Other drivers with this long of odds do not have the car or the talent. They need a lot of luck.
Featured Matchup: Brad Keselowski vs. Joey Logano
Joey Logano -120
These two are no longer teammates. However, that might be a good thing based on their previous plate races (see 2021 Daytona 500). Although Keselowski no longer has Penske power, his Roush car is not an inferior Ford at a plate track. That might be a problem. At Daytona, Keselowski had a fast car that made him feel invincible. He knows just as well as everyone else that his only chance of winning ever again is at a plate track. He went full checkers or wreckers in the 2022 Daytona 500. Before he wrecked, Keselowski caused several wrecks due to his aggressive driving. The script hasn’t changed. Keselowski might be more likely to win, but he’s also more likely to wreck, and the latter is the point that matters in a head-to-head matchup.
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Featured Matchup: Bubba Wallace vs. Denny Hamlin
Denny Hamlin -125
If Bubba were receiving plus money, then this would be tempting. He’s not, so Hamlin is the obvious pick. Bubba has been an above-average plate racer, but Hamlin is one of the best ever. At Talladega, the difference is clear. Whether there is actually a difference between Talladega and Daytona will never be known, but these drivers’ splits are stark. Bubba won the last Talladega race, but before that his average finish in seven Talladega races was 22nd. In 10 races at Daytona, his average finish is 13th with nine finishes of 17th or better. In contrast, Hamlin has four top-5 finishes in his last seven races at Talladega (his other finishes were 7th, 32nd and 36th).
Featured Matchup: Chase Elliott vs. Ryan Blaney
Ryan Blaney -120
Talladega used to be a strong track for Elliott, but his best finish in the last four is 18th with an average finish of 26th. This is still one of Blaney’s best tracks. His numbers are as good if not better than anyone else’s. In the last five at Talladega, Blaney has two wins. In the last five at Daytona, Blaney won last summer and nearly won two others but just missed out as the checkered flag waved.
Featured Matchup: Tyler Reddick vs. Chase Briscoe
Chase Briscoe -115
The DraftKings Sportsbook is having a little fun this week. Chase Briscoe wrecked Tyler Reddick on the final lap last week, but there is no bad blood. They’re both nice guys — too nice. Plate racing suits two types: aggressive maniacs and patient zombies without a pulse. Nice guys get wrecked, so who gets wrecked first is the question. Reddick has finished seventh or better in three of the last six plate races. In total, he has finished 20th or worse in seven of his 10 plate races. Briscoe hasn’t been a star, but he’s managed to stay off the wrecker. His average finish in five plate races is 15th (sixth-best).
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All betting odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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