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NASCAR Picks: GEICO 500 at Talladega Best Bets, Odds to Consider on DraftKings Sportsbook

Pearce Dietrich gives his top NASCAR bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the NASCAR Cup Series GEICO 500 at Talladega, which starts on April 24 at 3:00 p.m. ET.

Chase Briscoe clearly did not bet on himself to beat Daniel Suarez. He doesn’t appear to be a “Featured Matchup” guy. The all-or-nothing slide job attempt on Sunday night turned a second-place finish into a 22nd-place finish and a losing bet. The Best Bets went 2-2, which isn’t bad for a chaotic dirt race. Unfortunately, there won’t be any less chaos this week.

As always, trust the spreadsheet but also trust your eyes. Here are the best bets for the NASCAR Cup Series GEICO 500 at Talladega, which gets underway Sunday, April 24 at 3:00 p.m. ET.

Place your NASCAR bets on DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.

GEICO 500 Race Winner

Martin Truex Jr. +4000

Hands down, this has been the craziest NASCAR schedule in years, if not ever. Even the normal races have been quirky in the 2022 rules package. However, the quasi-normal races represent the minority, the majority of races have been plate races, but don’t forget to throw in a road course that is new to the circuit and a dirt track. This is a week to get weird and hope to hit a big one. It’s Talladega and it’s been a strange season, so the weirder the better.

Martin Truex doesn’t seem weird to the casual fan, but those that are dialed-in know that Truex is a terrible or terribly unlucky plate racer. That’s why he is +4000. He has the car, the team and talent. He just needs a little luck. Other drivers with this long of odds do not have the car or the talent. They need a lot of luck.

Featured Matchup: Brad Keselowski vs. Joey Logano

Joey Logano -120

These two are no longer teammates. However, that might be a good thing based on their previous plate races (see 2021 Daytona 500). Although Keselowski no longer has Penske power, his Roush car is not an inferior Ford at a plate track. That might be a problem. At Daytona, Keselowski had a fast car that made him feel invincible. He knows just as well as everyone else that his only chance of winning ever again is at a plate track. He went full checkers or wreckers in the 2022 Daytona 500. Before he wrecked, Keselowski caused several wrecks due to his aggressive driving. The script hasn’t changed. Keselowski might be more likely to win, but he’s also more likely to wreck, and the latter is the point that matters in a head-to-head matchup.

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Featured Matchup: Bubba Wallace vs. Denny Hamlin

Denny Hamlin -125

If Bubba were receiving plus money, then this would be tempting. He’s not, so Hamlin is the obvious pick. Bubba has been an above-average plate racer, but Hamlin is one of the best ever. At Talladega, the difference is clear. Whether there is actually a difference between Talladega and Daytona will never be known, but these drivers’ splits are stark. Bubba won the last Talladega race, but before that his average finish in seven Talladega races was 22nd. In 10 races at Daytona, his average finish is 13th with nine finishes of 17th or better. In contrast, Hamlin has four top-5 finishes in his last seven races at Talladega (his other finishes were 7th, 32nd and 36th).

Featured Matchup: Chase Elliott vs. Ryan Blaney

Ryan Blaney -120

Talladega used to be a strong track for Elliott, but his best finish in the last four is 18th with an average finish of 26th. This is still one of Blaney’s best tracks. His numbers are as good if not better than anyone else’s. In the last five at Talladega, Blaney has two wins. In the last five at Daytona, Blaney won last summer and nearly won two others but just missed out as the checkered flag waved.

Featured Matchup: Tyler Reddick vs. Chase Briscoe

Chase Briscoe -115

The DraftKings Sportsbook is having a little fun this week. Chase Briscoe wrecked Tyler Reddick on the final lap last week, but there is no bad blood. They’re both nice guys — too nice. Plate racing suits two types: aggressive maniacs and patient zombies without a pulse. Nice guys get wrecked, so who gets wrecked first is the question. Reddick has finished seventh or better in three of the last six plate races. In total, he has finished 20th or worse in seven of his 10 plate races. Briscoe hasn’t been a star, but he’s managed to stay off the wrecker. His average finish in five plate races is 15th (sixth-best).

Place your NASCAR bets on DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.

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All betting odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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