Thursday has a ton of baseball throughout the afternoon but this article will focus on the six-game slate taking place at 7:05 pm ET.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Walker Buehler, $9,700, Los Angeles Dodgers (-280) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+225) — Buhler and the Dodgers are overwhelming favorites on this six-game slate. They’ll take on a Reds team that despite slashing .198/.268/.318 through far, are tied for ninth in runs scored with 27. Unfortunately for them, they’ll be taking on Buehler, who was one of the Dodgers best pitchers last season.
Getting an early jump on Buehler last season was almost impossible. The first time through the order, Buehler allowed just a .231 wOBA, a 3.08 FIP, and a 30.1% K%. He also put up some of his best numbers at Dodger Stadium, where he allowed only 28 runs through 123 IP. They’ve already lost one of their best hitters in Tommy Pham, who is undergoing tests on his injured left hand. This team should provide solid strikeout upside all season long and that’s already shown in the first week of the season with a K% of 27.6%, good for the third-highest thus far.
Highest Projected Total
Chicago Cubs (+105) at Colorado Rockies (-125) 11 runs— The Rockies open their second series at home tonight with the Cubs. Ironically enough, Coors Field wasn’t the land of automatic overs like we always assume it is, as 56.3% of the games went UNDER the game total. Overall, the over went just 35-45-1 last year. That being said, the over may still be in play tonight with Justin Steele ($5,400) taking on Kyle Freeland ($6,000).
Freeland was one of the Rockies starters that STRUGGLED at Coors last season. Yes, in a weird and twisted way, the majority of the staff actually pitched BETTER at Coors than on the road. Freeland was not one of them, posting a .365 wOBA, a 4.80 FIP, and a 1.6 HR/9. The Cubs have been one of the more patient teams at the plate thus far with a 15.1% BB% but Freeland does exhibit good command. Meanwhile, Steele, who was mainly used as a reliever last year, didn’t exactly find a groove when he was a stater. Since last year, he’s now made 10 starts and has amassed a .344 wOBA, a 5.53 FIP with a 1.8 HR/9. Neither team particularly has an advantage in this one, so I think the over is in play. Even with losing Trevor Story, the Rockies currently have six players projected to be in tonight’s lineup with a wRC+ of 102 or better.
April 14, 2022 Betting Splits
Splits to Start
These stats reflect 2021 numbers until May 1.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, FIP, wOBA
Casey Mize, 5.92, .355
Shohei Ohtani, 4.64, .313
Kyle Freeland, 4.33, .344
Best vs. LHB, FIP, wOBA
Kevin Gausman, 2.71, .263
Charlie Morton, 2.94, .255
Walker Buehler, 3.34, .261
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, FIP, wOBA
Justin Steele, 5.99, .358
Zack Greinke, 5.25, .351
Kyle Freeland, 4.74, .350
Best vs. RHB, FIP, wOBA
Shohei Ohtani, 2.43, .245
Walker Buehler, 2.96, .249
Joe Musgrove, 3.16, .252
Pitcher to Build Around
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers, $7,900 - It’s not the easiest matchup on the board but this price tag on Ohtani feels too good to pass up. He’s taking on the Rangers team that has put some crooked numbers up on the board already but are a team that’ll also strikeout. The majority of their current lineup had a 22.1% K% or higher against righties last season, capped off by Adolis Garica ($4,600) at 28.8%. We already saw in his first start, Ohtani can rack up the strikeouts early and often, striking out nine Astros’ hitters through 4 2⁄3 innings. What makes all that more impressive is that the Astros lineup is one of the toughest in the league to send down by way of the “K.”
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Kris Bryant, Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs, $4,400 — Speaking of salaries that feel too low, Bryant against Steele at $4,400 is a must for me. When getting these types of bats at Coors Field, I would assume Bryant would be in the low $5K range, so getting him UNDER $4,500 feels like a gift. He’s always been a strong hitter against lefties and wrapped up 2021 with a .381 wOBA, a .254 ISO and a 138 wRC+. Take those type of numbers and place him in Coors Field? Good things should be coming, especially tonight.
Save Big by Drafting
Andrew Benintendi, Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers, $3,800 — This is a great matchup for Benintendi against Mize. If you see the numbers above, Mize is statistically (according to FIP) the worst pitcher on this slate with a 5.92. While it didn’t feel like it, Benintedi put up some decent numbers last season with a .323 wOBA, a .172 IO and a 103 wRC+ against righties. It’s nothing to blow you away but for someone at $3,800 in a plus matchup and near the top of the order, he’s a nice value to get in your lineup.
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