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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for April 13

Steve Buchanan breaks down Wednesday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Wednesday has a ton of baseball throughout the afternoon but this article will focus on the four-game slate taking place at 6:40 pm ET.

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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Shane McClanahan, $7,500, Tampa Bay Rays (-190) vs. Oakland Athletics (+160) — Hey, give the A’s some credit, they’ve been putting up a fight with the Rays this series. Through two games, the A’s have scored a combined 21 runs but only have a 1-1 record to show for it. Tonight, they’ll take on McClanahan, who really flew under the radar last season. Through 25 starts, he produced a 10.2 K/9, a 2.7 BB/9, and just a 1.02 HR/9. He was also excellent at keeping the ball on the ground, inducing a fantastic 45.5% ground ball rate. All this bodes well against an A’s team that I think we all can agree, has been hitting above their means in the early going. Despite the early offense, they have already struck out 24.1% of the time, which should only go higher with McClanahan. On this shortened slate, he feels like a very strong option at just $7,500.

Highest Projected Total

Seattle Mariners (+100) at Chicago White Sox (-120) 9 runs— We do have weather concerns for this game but as it stands, it has the highest projected total. Taking the mound for the White Sox will be Dallas Keuchel ($5,200) against THE REIGNING, DEFENDING, UNDISPUTED CY YOUNG AWARD WINNER OF THE WORLD....ROBBIEEEEEE RAYYYYYYYYYYYY ($9,400). Both teams currently have a team total of 4.5 runs and as of this writing, at plus money. In terms of matchup, the Mariners have the distinct advantage going against a heavy contact pitcher like Keuchel. This is a pitcher that has averaged under six strikeouts per inning over the past two seasons. His numbers, particularly last season, were very poor, as indicated by a 5.23 FIP, which almost matched his 5.28 ERA. The Mariners have some good bats against lefties as well, highlighted by Mitch Haniger ($4,600) who posted an impressive 148 wRC+, a .381 wOBA and a .286 ISO against them. I would be more comfortable taking over 4.5 runs (+100) for the Mariners than I would on the team total.

Weather Notes

Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox- As mentioned, this is the only real threat on the slate with rain in the forecast. It’ll be on and off throughout the day so keep an eye on this one.

April 13, 2022 Betting Splits

Splits to Start

These stats reflect 2021 numbers until May 1.

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, FIP, wOBA
Dallas Keuchel, 4.16, .357
Jose Berrios, 4.02, .336
Robbie Ray, 3.47, .254

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Corbin Burnes, 1.49, .248
Shane McClanahan, 2.41, .311
Gerrit Cole, 3.04, .286

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, FIP, wOBA
Dallas Keuchel, 5.49, .355
John Means, 4.98, .299
Robbie Ray, 3.75, .294

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Corbin Burnes, 1.78, .215
Gerrit Cole, 2.83, .267
Jose Berrios, 2.99, .240

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Orioles, $9,600 - It’s easy to be a bit gun shy on Burnes after he burned so many lineups on Opening Day. As one of the most expensive options, he allowed three runs on four hits with four strikeouts and three walks to the Cub for 9.1 DKFP through five innings. Not exactly the start you’d expect from someone who just won a Cy Young in the National League. Tonight, he gets a much softer matchup against the Orioles, a team that already has struck out 31% of the time, which currently tops the league. The Orioles will give you trouble if you’re a lefty but against righties, they’re a soft hitting team. Last season, they ended the year with a 25% K% against righties, which ranked fifth in the league. They’ll be up in that realm once again, which puts Burnes in a great bounce back spot.

Stud Hitter to Pay For

Anthony Rizzo, New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays, $4,700 — Rizzo has been on the fantasy board in every game he’s played thus far, averaging 11.6 DKFP. He’s quickly collected six RBI and hit two home runs. He has a favorable matchup tonight against Jose Berrios ($7,800) who was knocked out of his first start after just 13 of an inning. The Rangers tagged him for four runs on three hits, including a home runs for -10.9 DKFP. Berrios against lefties was a big roadblock for him last season, ending with a 4.02 FIP, a .336 wOBA and 15 of the 22 home runs he allowed. In the cozy Yankees Stadium, Rizzo has the opportunity to flourish in this good matchup.

Save Big by Drafting

Stephen Piscotty, Oakland Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays, $3,000 — I do think McClanahan is a very strong option today but I don’t hate Piscotty if you’re not using the Rays pitcher. He’s dirt cheap and should be hitting near the heart of the lineup against the lefty. Piscotty has hit lefties much better than righties throughout his career with more pop as well. He has a lifetime 127 wRC+, .191 ISO and .355 wOBA against them. If he’s back in the eight hole, I wouldn’t be as into using him but if he’s hitting fifth or sixth, I think he’s a worth value play.

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