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We’ve got a busy early slate of MLB action. Let’s get started there, then move into some of the games scheduled after the 12-1 p.m. ET window.
Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
Pete Alonso over 1.5 total bases +115
He got a hit on Tuesday, but Alonso has largely been quiet since his big-time grand slam vs. the Nationals, going 1-for-11 over the last three. Of course, that means the Mets first baseman is due. Although, we can’t rely on that alone.
Alonso has 32 plate appearances against Aaron Nola, and the former largely gotten the better of the latter. Although Philly’s starter has punched him out eight times, Alonso has a .345 average and 1.130 OPS with three home runs and two doubles against Nola.
Furthermore, Alonso was great during day games last season. Over 179 at-bats, he posted a .307 average with 10 home runs and 10 doubles. Not only was his day-game average 66 percentage points higher than his night game average, his .936 day-game OPS was over 100 percentage points higher than his night game OPS.
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Houston Astros at Arizona Diamondbacks
Astros FFI -0.5 -110
The Astros didn’t do a whole lot of damage vs. Arizona on Tuesday, but they still managed to squeak out their fourth win of the season. More importantly, they continue to get the job done in the first five innings. Outside of their one loss of the season, the Astros have managed to hold the lead through the first five frames every game — including Wednesday’s 2-1 win.
With Framber Valdez on the mound, there’s no reason that can’t happen again on Wednesday. It’s still early, but Arizona has done next to nothing against left-handed pitching so far (.269 OPS and .000 ISO). Having to deal with Valdez, who threw 6.2 shutout innings on Opening Day, will be a challenge.
As for Houston’s offense, Merrill Kelly is always a starter to pick on. Now, he did well vs. the Padres in his first start of the year. But to me, that only means he’s due for a rough night. With the Astros posting a .799 team OPS and .232 team ISO against righties so far, Houston is in position to make Wednesday a rough one for Kelly.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
Teoscar Hernandez over 0.5 RBIs +160
I generally don’t ride RBI props, but there are a couple things that led me to this one.
Hernandez has hit well this series, and he’s 5-for-15 with a homer and double against Gerrit Cole. He also hit well at Yankee Stadium last season. This all absolutely puts the over on his total bases prop (1.5 +140) in play, too.
But the reason his RBI prop is my preferred option: Hernandez hasn’t driven in a run since Opening Day. With all the good work he’s done at the plate to start the year, that has to change soon. Not to mention, he’s batting fourth in one of the best lineups in baseball; he’s going to get run-producing opportunities.
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