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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for April 12

Steve Buchanan breaks down Tuesday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Tuesday’s slate features nine games. You can probably finish this article in nine minutes. That’s good!

Follow me on Twitter or you’re not allowed to read this article. @SBuchanan24

DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Eric Lauer, $9,100, Milwaukee Brewers (-165) at Baltimore Orioles (+145) — I really don’t want to see a slate where Lauer is the biggest favorite on the night. Yet, here we are.

Sure, I get it, the Orioles are not a strong team by any means. However, I would dare say they’re a better team against lefties than they are righties. They have some players that can mash lefties and they’ll likely roll the Opening Day lineup again tonight. Since last season, four of those players had a wRC+ above 108 (Hays, Mancini, Mountcastle and Mullins), and four had an ISO of at least .237 (Mountcastle, Mancini, Hays, Chirinos). They’re a free-swinging bunch, with an average K% of 23.1% but Lauer can be a bit inconsistent with strikeouts, with a career K/9 of 8.4. Despite a 3.19 ERA last year, Lauer was bailed out by his defense some, as his FIP stood at 4.04. While I can’t trust this team to win, I do like taking them over 3.5 runs at -125.

Highest Projected Total

Colorado Rockies (+145) at Texas Rangers (-165) 10 runs— Tonight has a number of games with a 9.5 game total but this one tops them all at 10. It’s a double-digit total involving the Rockies that ISN’T at Coors Field but rather Globe Life Field. The pitching matchup certainly warrants the high total, as Chad Kuhl ($5,200) matches up against Martin Perez ($5,800).

The matchup for the Rangers is the one that sticks out to me. Facing Kuhl, who hasn’t produced a FIP lower than 5.48 over the last two years with the Pirates. He really struggles with his command, evidenced by a 14.2% and 12% BB% the last two seasons. Now he’s tasked with facing a Rangers team who is already averaging 6.7 runs to open the season. Kuhl has struggled immensely against lefties, which will pose problems against this Rangers lineup. Brad Miller ($3,400), Corey Seager ($5,000) and Nate Lowe ($4,400) are all expected to be near the top of the lineup while Kole Calhoun ($3,300) and Willie Calhoun ($3,500) could also be in the mix. I like the over in this game and the team total for the Rangers, which is set at 5.5 runs. This game shouldn’t disappoint.

Weather Notes

Los Angeles Dodgers at Minnesota Twins - Very unlikely this game plays, as rain will be in the area all throughout the evening. Unless something changes by tonight, this is looking to be a stay-away spot.

A number of games will have strong winds blowing out tonight. Something to be aware of for these ones:

Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Angels - 19mph winds out toward right field.
Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals - 20mph winds out toward left field.
San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants - 20mph windows out toward center field.

It should be noted that Oracle Park was designed to minimize the wind, so this isn’t as big of a factor as it would be at other parks. Nonetheless, it’s still worth noting.

April 12, 2022 Betting Splits

Splits to Start

These stats reflect 2021 numbers until May 1.

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, FIP, wOBA
Chad Kuhl, 6.17, .369
Madison Bumgarner, 5.08, .291
Luis Garcia, 4.55, .353

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Nestor Cortes, 2.75, .291
Patrick Corbin, 2.78, .268
Alex Cobb, 2.99, .278

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, FIP, wOBA
Alexander Well, 7.40, .391
Patrick Corbin, 6.22, .387
Jesus Luzardo, 6.07, .389

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Luis Garcia, 2.83, .241
Alex Cobb, 2.86, .295
Yu Darvish, 3.57, .298

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants, $10,100 - This is a really tough slate for pitching and quite frankly, I think Darvish is a bit overpriced. That said, he’s one of the “safer” options we have to choose from. Tonight features a lot of “maybe” and “has the potential” type plays, where Darvish is the more solidified options. He wasn’t overly dominant against the Diamondbacks, striking out three and walking four through six innings, but he didn’t allow a before departing at 92 pitches. The Giants were a team to target for strikeouts against righties, ending with a 24.3% K% last season. Adding Joc Pederson ($3,200) will certainly help maintain that number in 2022. I don’t LOVE Darvish due to his salary but the pickings are extremely thin.

Stud Hitter to Pay For

Dylan Carlson, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals, $4,400 — You don’t have to go overly expensive tonight to nab Carlson, who has got off to a really nice start. Carlson, hitting leadoff for the Cardinals, is already 4-for-10 with two doubles, two RBI and a stolen base, averaging 12.3 DKFP out of the gate. He draws the plus matchup tonight against lefty Daniel Lynch ($5,500), who is coming off a horrible Spring Training to boot. Against lefties, Carlson has a career .382 wOBA, a .179 ISO and a 143 wRC+.

Save Big by Drafting

Trey Mancini, Baltimore Orioles vs. Milwaukee Brewers, $2,900 — I mentioned it earlier in the article but Mancini is one of the players on this roster that hits lefties extremely well. This salary is laughable when you consider that, as he posted a 140 wRC+ and a .247 ISO against them last season. It’s not as if Mancini is hitting low in the order either, he’s been hitting third or fourth in all four games thus far. That’s value you don’t get often unless a player has been scratched. I’m getting Mancini in my lineup first and foremost and moving on.

For sports betting, head over to DraftKings Sportsbook or download the DraftKings Sportsbook app.

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