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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for April 11

Steve Buchanan breaks down Monday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

MLB: Spring Training-Cleveland Guardians at Seattle Mariners Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

Monday is filled with baseball once again, as the entire day will feature some games. This article will cover the seven-game slate that begins at 6:40 pm ET.

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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Luis Patino, $7,800, Tampa Bay Rays (-225) vs. Oakland Athletics (+185) — The A’s are going to be a team to pick on all season long. I mentioned on my Twitter over the weekend that this team is going to strikeout A LOT. On Saturday, they had a lineup that featured six players with a K% of 25% or higher against righties. Thus, Kyle Gibson, who has a career 7.1 K/9, struck out 10. That’s absurd.

Tonight they’ll face Patino, who averaged an 8.6 K/9 during 77 1/3 innings in the majors last season. His strikeout upside is better than that, as we’ve seen him in the double-digits at different levels in the minors. His strength thus far has been against righties, where he has a 10.1 K/9, a 4.09 FIP, a .289 wOBA, and a 7.7 BB%. Through the first three games, the A’s have run out between five and six righties, which should give Patino the advantage. This A’s team also has very little power, as that lineup I mentioned before struggled to even reach a .200 ISO.

Offensively, this should also be a good spot for the Rays against Paul Blackburn ($5,200). He’s been up in the majors since 2017 but has logged a total of 138 innings. He has a career 4.70 FIP, a 5.02 K/9, and a 1.17 HR/9. He’s nearly equally struggled against both sides of the plate, posting nearly identical FIPs of 4.52 to lefties and 4.88 to righties.

Highest Projected Total

New York Mets (+135; 4.5 team total) at Philadelphia Phillies (-155; 5.5 team total) 9.5 runs— I love this spot for the Phillies going against Taijuan Walker ($8,300). As you may recall, Walker had a very strong first half of 2021 before COMPLETELY coming undone in the second half. Through 64 1/3 in the second half, Walker posted a 6.79 FIP, a .362 wOBA, a 2.8 HR/9, and a 3.5 BB/9. Walker has already said during Spring Training that his right knee is giving him problems, which is the same one he had surgically repaired during the offseason. He’s also unlikely to go deep into this game, as he hasn’t been stretched out completely. All of this combined has me on the Phillies going over their team total, as I think they’ll jump on Walker early. Walker posted some of his worst numbers on the road last season, allowing 14 of his 26 total home runs to go with a .337 wOBA and a 5.33 FIP. While the winds won’t be strong tonight at 9 mph, they will be blowing out toward center field.

Weather Notes

San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants- Winds will be blowing out around 24 mph. This would normally be a big deal but Oracle Park is built to help minimize the wind, unlike its former stadium.

April 11, 2022 Betting Splits

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, FIP, wOBA
Elieser Hernandez, 8.10, .412
Luis Patino, 6.04, .356
Dylan Bundy, 5.22, .323

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Ranger Suarez, 1.70, .151
Alex Wood, 3.52, .296
Chris Flexen, 3.82, .278

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, FIP, wOBA
Dylan Bundy, 5.71, .365
Paul Blackburn, 5.45, .364
Taijuan Walker, 4.51, .316

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Elieser Hernandez, 2.40, .282
Ranger Suarez, 3.16, .266
Alek Manoah, 3.27, .228

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Luis Patino, Tampa Bay Rays vs. Oakland Athletics, $7,800 - No one really blows me away when it comes to pitching on this slate. I think going down to Patino is one of the better matchups you can target. As I mentioned earlier, the A’s are going to strikeout a ton this season and Patino does have the strikeout upside. When pitching in Tampa last season, Patino exhibited some of his best stuff, posting a .283 wOBA, a 4.25 FIP, and a 1.2 HR/9. Against a lineup that’ll feature very little power, Patino is my guy tonight.

Stud Hitter to Pay For

Jesse Winker, Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins, $5,000 — The Mariners will have the benefit of facing Dylan Bundy ($5,600) who has left the pitcher-friendly stadium in Los Angeles. Bundy has struggled with home runs all throughout his career and even with pitching half of his game in LA, still ended with a 1.9 HR/9 through 90 23 innings. With a 5.22 FIP against lefties last year, he’ll have to deal with Winker, who thrives against righties. With the Reds last season, Winker had a .449 wOBA, a .296 ISO and a 178 wRC+.

Save Big by Drafting

Bryson Stott, Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets, $2,100 — Stott is nearly the stone minimum as he takes on Walker. Normally, I’m not going out of my way to take someone near the bottom of the order. That said, I’m under the belief that the Phillies will be going over the 5.5 run total, so I’d be interested in doing a wraparound stack. Using this method takes someone at the bottom of the order and stacking them with the top. Through the minors, Stott has shown some speed, a little bit of pop and a very strong ability of getting on base. It won’t take much for him to return value.

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