We have nine NBA games to choose from on Friday. There are three games with a total of at least 230 on DraftKings Sportsbook: MIN/OKC (230.5), HOU/DEN (236) and MIL/CHI (240.5). DEN is the biggest favorite by 14 points over HOU, while there is one game with a spread of below 3 points: IND -2.5 over DET.
For full transparency, I am filling in for Julian — the betting guru — so to Costanza the Son could be the path of most profits. On Thursday, I went 0-3, so you have been warned.
Let’s dive into some of my favorite NBA wagers for this slate.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
The trends don’t look great for this bet. MIL is 13-1 SU in the last 14 against CHI and 9-1 ATS in the last 10 at CHI. Home dogs have won only 31.4% of the time. That said, CHI is 5-1 SU in the last six at home and have a 24-9 record in Chicago, the second-best record in the NBA. These teams met back in Milwaukee at the end of January with the Bucks prevailing 94-90. Zach LaVine did not play in that one, but he’s back for this one. The Bulls have lost three in a row, but I like them to bounce back tonight.
Away favorites have covered 53.7% of the time and MIN has covered the spread at a respectable 53.2% rate. The Thunder are 9-21 at home and seem to play better on the road. On the season, OKC has covered at the second-best rate (63.8%), but much of that success came in the early portions of the season. From the start of the season to the end of the calendar year, OKC was 11-6 ATS at home. After the start of the new year, they have been 3-4-4. And now the team is without Josh Giddey.
The sample size is small, but in the three games that James Harden has been a member of the 76ers, their offensive rating has been 125.3 while the defense has been a respectable 104.7. On the flip side, the Cavaliers, who have been a top-5 defense for most of the season, have had a defensive rating of 115.3 — 18th-best over that span. The Cavs will also be without Caris LeVert for another game. These teams met a few weeks ago with Philadelphia prevailing by 10 points, and that was without Harden in the mix.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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