March Madness has been as insane as ever. Now the tournament shifts to the Final Four in New Orleans, featuring four of the Blue Bloods. Time to lock in some college basketball bets on DraftKings Sportsbook!
Here’s how I’m going to construct these articles during the NCAA Tournament. Rather than just give bets with unit size, I’m going to write up all the bets/leans I’m considering. That way you get more content and insight on more games. But with that said, please be careful. These aren’t all games that I’ll ultimately bet on.
For my official plays, I’ll continue posting the play to Twitter, but will loop you back to these articles for the analysis.
Everything below is what jumps out to me on the Final Four card.
This one opened -3 on DK and moved quickly. I put my play out on Twitter at -3.5 as soon as I could snag it.
The analysis really isn’t too deep. This is the public side, but in this case I can’t side with Villanova with as thin of a roster as they’ll be throwing out there.
Kansas is coming off the most impressive half we’ve seen out of anyone in this tournament so far — throttling Miami 47-15. The Jayhawks are well balanced, have depth, and will look to push the pace with that depth and run on ‘Nova.
The Wildcats are obviously going to look to slow the pace here, as would be the game plan at full strength. But the loss of Justin Moore to a torn Achilles is too much for me to overlook here. Moore averages about 15/15/2 as one of the team’s best shooters and perimeter defenders. The loss wouldn’t hurt as much if Jay Wright had someone to replace Moore with, but this team plays a six-man rotations (Moore averages just shy of 35 minutes per game).
I don’t know how the Wildcats are going to have the depth or size to stick with Kansas over the course of this game, especially if Bill Self plays this smart and tries to push the pace to run ‘Nova out of energy without a full squad.
Potential Player Prop: Ochai Agbaji 20+ Points (+195)
Agbaji is set at 16.5 on his point prop, but I’ll take it up a notch and look to nearly double my money with him getting to 20 points. He averages 19 per game, but this number is set a little low due to the low game total and some poor games to start the tournament. He broke out for 18 on 8-for-12 shooting last round, and I think this matchup sets up will for him to fill it up. He’s gotten there in 18 of 37 games.
I’ve gone back-and-forth on picking this game. It’s a massive revenge spot for Duke after Carolina handed Coach K a loss in his final home game. But will the Blue Devils be too hyped? Why can’t UNC play the bad guy twice and end Coach K’s career in the Final Four?
Ultimately I can see both scenarios. I lean taking the points with the Tar Heels, but I could see Duke getting some very favorable calls down the stretch.
What I do see is a large number on this total, but one that’s actually set too low for these two teams. Both have elite scoring options, and neither will be shy to push the pace. When these two teams, that obviously know each other well meet, it generally looks like an NBA game.
This matchup landed on 175 in the regular season finale, and landed 154 in the first meeting (and that was with a mere 67 from UNC). So far in this tournament, the Blue Devils are averaging 79.75 points per game, with a low of 78 — a total they’ve landed on three times. The Tar Heels are averaging 82.5 points in the tournament, topping 90 twice. Their low of 69 came against Saint Peter’s, one of the most efficient defensive teams in the country, and a game UNC dribble out the last five minutes of a blowout. This should be a track meet.
Potential Player Prop: Brady Manek O2.5 Threes (-105)
In a correlated play with the total, look for Manek to stay hot from downtown. This dude has been launching from downtown in the tournament, a combined 16-for-34 from beyond the arc, making at least three in each contest. The matchup against Duke should set up nicely for Manek. He saw 10 attempts when they met earlier in March, draining five of them in the win. He also went 6-for-10 in the loss the first time these two teams met.
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY), visit OPGR.org (OR), call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN), or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).
21+ (18+ NH/WY). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.