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Top scoring game environments on DraftKings Sportsbook
Grizzlies @ Spurs - 234
Nuggets @ Pacers - 233.5
Kings @ Rockets - 230
Over the last 15 games, the Grizzlies and Spurs are second and third in offensive pace. In three meetings, the games had totals of 223, 228 and 223. Ja Morant played in all three of those contests. Interestingly, in the 56 games that Morant has played this season, the Grizzlies are averaging 114.2 points per game. In 20 games without him, the average goes up to 118.8.
Indiana and Denver are 12th and 15th in offensive pace over the past 15 games while being 13th and eighth in offensive rating. What makes things juicier is that they have been 23rd and 27th in defensive rating. Denver has scored 117.3 points per game while Indiana has put up 115.4.
The Kings and Rockets are sixth and eighth in offensive pace. Both teams are offensively challenged, ranking 24th and 25th, but have scored 113 and 112.5 points per game over the last 15 games.
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Scheduling Notes
3rd game in 4th night
Mavericks, Wizards, Hornets, Knicks, Celtics, Warriors, Trail Blazers
2nd night of a back-to-back
Mavericks, Wizards
1st night of a back-to-back
Key Injuries to Monitor
Pelicans C Jonas Valanciunas ($8,300) @ Trail Blazers
Valanciunas has been dealing with a sore right foot but he’s been playing through it. He has missed six games this season, the last which occurred in late January. If he’s unable to go, Jaxson Hayes ($5,100) would likely slide down to center while Larry Nance Jr. ($3,900) or Naji Marshall ($4,000) could get the nod at power forward. Willy Hernangomez ($3,500) would also see a bump in playing time. Since returning to action, Nance has played 18 minutes in each contest. Marshall is averaging 0.91 FP/Min while Hernangomez is at 1.22.
Pacers PG Malcolm Brogdon ($7,500) @ Nuggets
The Pacers have not played Brogdon the last five games due to “rest.” With their record at 25-51, there’s no incentive to play him. If he does play, then he will take usage away from Tyrese Haliburton ($9,700).
Grizzlies PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr. ($7,600) @ Spurs
Jackson is dealing with a thigh issue and missed Monday’s game, only the second game he has missed this season. If he’s out, Kyle Anderson ($4,400) will likely get the start with Brandon Clarke ($4,300) the main guy off the bench. Xavier Tillman ($3,300) would also likely get some additional playing time.
Favorite Pick Against the Spread
Thunder +13 vs. Hawks - (-115)
I’ve been looking to fade the Hawks on the road for much of the season. They are a league-worst 12-25 ATS on the road. They have been double-digit favorites seven times this season and went 4-3, but all of those games were at home. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has missed four of the last five games and the Thunder have gone 4-0 ATS in those contests, with a cover on the road against the Nuggets.
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Favorite Player Prop
Clint Capela O 12.5 Points - (-110)
Capela is a low-usage player so his points come off rebounds and lobs. He should get plenty of opportunities for both, though. On the season, the Thunder have boosted the rebounds to centers by 18.71% above the league average and two-pointers by 15.72%. He will have a big size advantage over Isaiah Roby ($6,200). The playing time has been sporadic at times, so that’s a concern, but over the last two games, he’s played 31 in each contest, contributing 22 and 19 points.
Favorite Value Play
Pelicans C Willy Hernangomez ($3,500) @ Trail Blazers
This play is contingent upon Jonas Valanciunas ($8,300) being out. If he’s out, Hernangomez could start, but more than likely, Jaxson Hayes ($5,100) will slide down to center with Larry Nance Jr. ($3,900) or Naji Marshall ($4,000) getting the start at power forward. That said, Hernangomez should get elevated playing time in that scenario. He is averaging 1.22 DKFP per minute.
Favorite Stud
Nuggets C Nikola Jokic ($12,400) @ Pacers
Jokic is averaging a league-best 1.83 FP/Min on the season. He has the highest floor/ceiling combo on any slate he plays. Over the last 15 games, the Pacers have been 12th in offensive pace and 27th in defensive rating. Against centers, they have boosted the FPPM 12.21% above the league average.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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