We have seven NBA games to choose from on Thursday. There are two games with a total of at least 230 on DraftKings Sportsbook: CHI/ATL (232.5) and SAC/SA (241). TOR is the biggest favorite by 8.5 points over DET, while there are five games with a spread of below 3 points: CHI -1 over ATL, BOS -1.5 over MEM, DAL -2 over GS, LAC -2.5 over LAL and MIA -2.5 over BKN.
For full transparency, I am filling in for Julian — the betting guru — so to Costanza the Son could be the path of most profits.
Let’s dive into some of my favorite NBA wagers for this slate.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors
Under 220 (-110)
Last season, these teams played three games and the totals were 236, 266 and 263 points, respectively. There’s a New World Order this year, though, as the Warriors are tops in defensive efficiency while the Mavericks are sixth. In three games this season, the totals have been 208, 222 and 181 points. The 222-point game was in the Bay Area with the Warriors winning 130-92. Dallas is 27th in offensive pace and they should be able to dictate more of the pace being at home.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Sacramento Kings
Spurs -7 (-110)
I was initially intrigued by the total of this game, as both teams are top 10 in offensive pace while being in the bottom 10 for defensive efficiency. However, it’s a fair number and I can make a case for both the over and the under. Therefore, I decided to focus on the spread. The Spurs are decent ATS this season, covering 52.5% of the time, while the Kings are at 45.3%. The Spurs are 12th in offensive efficiency, while the Kings are 29th in defensive efficiency. The Spurs are well-rested, having last played on Monday, while the Kings are on the second leg of a back-to-back.
Los Angeles Lakers at Los Angeles Clippers
Lakers ML (+120)
The Clippers have swept the season series with the Lakers so far, going 3-0. Looking at the stats and recent play of the Lakers, I should take the Clippers here, but I’m going to go the other way and back the Lakers. They are wounded, but a cornered animal is a dangerous one, as their playoff lives are at stake. After getting blown out by 28 points at home by the Pelicans and having the fans boo them, they bounced back against the Mavericks. Even though that ended up as a loss, they showed fight and I expect the team to make one last run.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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