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NASCAR Picks: Motorsports Odds, Best Bets to Consider on DraftKings Sportsbook for the NASCAR Cup Series Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube at Las Vegas

Pearce Dietrich gives his top NASCAR bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the NASCAR Cup Series Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube at Las Vegas, which starts on March 6 at 3:30 p.m. ET.

The beat rolls on. Last week at Fontana, this article picked the race winner and won three of the four “Featured Matchup” bets — Daniel Suarez just missed by finishing third and one spot behind Erik Jones. That raises the “Featured Matchup” total to 10-2 on the season. Last year was great, but 2022 is looking even better. Let’s keep it rolling by looking through the data while being cognizant of context. Trust the spreadsheet but also trust your eyes. Here are the best bets for the NASCAR Cup Series Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube at Las Vegas, which gets underway Sunday Mar. 6 at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Place your NASCAR bets on DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.

Pennzoil 400 Winner

Tyler Reddick (+1600)

These cars are wrecking loose. That means two types of drivers should be targeted: Long shots and rim riders (drivers that are unafraid of running right next to the wall). Betting on favorites — outside of Kyle Larson — is not a great proposition, given the probability of a significant amount of wrecks and spins in the upcoming races.

Long shots can and will win a race soon. There will be wrecks. There will be attrition. Pit stops and restarts will be deciding factors. The best driver in the best equipment does not have a massive advantage. However, if circumstantial betting sounds too risky, then Reddick blends the two approaches. He has the car and the skill to win this race, and his odds are rather long.

He was in control of last week’s race. He led more laps in that race than he has in his entire Cup Series career. To most fans and apparently the DraftKings Sportsbook, they are worried about his aggressive driving and history of stepping over the line. This is an analytical mistake. Reddick aggressively drove against the wall at Auto Club, but he blew his left tire not his right tire. Furthermore, his flat tire would have been a hiccup had William Byron not unforgivably plowed into Reddick as he slowed with the blown tire. These odds do not reflect Reddick’s improved RCR team or his ability in the low-downforce, high-horsepower car.

Featured Matchup: Austin Dillon vs. Kurt Busch

Austin Dillon (-115)

This season is expected to be a struggle for Kurt Busch. When CGR closed down, he accepted a ride with 23XI Racing (Jordan-Hamlin team). This team struggled last season. Now, they’re challenged with developing a new race car and expanding to a two-car team at the same time. It wasn’t surprising to see Busch lack speed at Fontana. He was bailed out by numerous cautions, but this team struggled last week. Also, the Toyotas were suffering overheating issues last weekend and that problem could persist.

In contrast, the arrow is pointing up at RCR. They have benefited from data sharing with fellow Chevy team, Hendrick. This season they have taken cooperation to the next level by forming a six-car alliance on the RCR campus (RCR, GMS Petty and Kaulig Racing). At Fontana, Dillon had top-15 speed, the best pit crew and he was good on restarts. What else is there? In this new low-downforce package, the most necessary achievement is keeping the car clean, Dillon did just that.

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Featured Matchup: Kyle Busch vs. Joey Logano

Joey Logano (-120)

Following Fontana, there has been radio silence. Not much has been heard out of the JGR camp. Given their performance last weekend, this is not a good sign for Kyle Busch early in the season. The Joey Logano vs. Kyle Busch matchup is usually fairly even. This early in the season, one would be right to assume nothing has changed, but the JGR cars seemed off last Sunday. It is very likely that their struggles will continue throughout the West Coast swing.

The Penske Fords were not the class of the field at Fontana. They were not dominant, but they had enough speed to compete for the win. Austin Cindric was a top-10 driver. Logano was battling for the win at the end; Blaney had a race-winning car, but his pit crew ruined his day. Penske has a better understanding of the Next Gen car, and that gives Logano the clear advantage in this bet.

Featured Matchup: Kyle Larson vs. Chase Elliott

Kyle Larson (-145)

NASCAR betting is unlike any other sport. If you bet on a football team that underperforms for a half or three quarters, then you’re toast. NASCAR is scored by the final lap. Larson could be terrible for 266 laps and still win the bet by outracing Elliott on lap 267. That’s an obvious exaggeration, but it’s not too far from the truth. Larson did not take the lead at Fontana until lap 167 of 200 (85% of the race was completed). His crew chief Cliff Daniels has a knack for figuring out the winning setup on the fly, and no one else in the Cup Series is better at adapting and closing than Larson (11 wins in 2021).

Elliott rebounded last week from a spin in Stage 1, but Larson would later accidentally drive him into the wall as the two battled for the lead late in the race. Elliott would go on to spin out again in Stage 3. Regardless of the feud, counting practice and qualifying, Elliott spun out three times in the low-downforce, high-horsepower car last weekend. Larson did not spin out once. If both drivers are equal in talent — they’re not — and they’re cars are equal, then the ability to handle an out-of-control race car will be the deciding factor — advantage dirt racer.

Featured Matchup: Tyler Reddick vs. William Byron

Tyler Reddick (-105)

At Fontana, Reddick was leading the race in stage 3 and Byron was in third. Reddick blew a tire and Byron got loose just as he was passing Reddick. The wreck ended both of their days. Byron was fast last season in the lone low-downforce, high-horsepower race at an intermediate track (third at Nashville). It’s likely that Byron will be a top-5 driver again this week, but Reddick has something special. He looks like a race winner, a multiple race winner.

Place your NASCAR bets on DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.

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All betting odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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