We’re a week away from Augusta National, but don’t overlook the Valero Texas Open from a betting perspective. Yes, Augusta National is in a class of its own, but we’ve seen both favorites and longshots hit here over the past couple of seasons, giving way to any card you want to build.
The average winning odds over the previous five years is just under +9600, with the longest coming from Corey Conners and Andrew Landry in 2019 and 2018, respectively, at +20000. The shortest numbers came from last year’s winner, Jordan Spieth, at +1600. Using current form is an ideal strategy every week, but it may not be as crucial to winning here. Both Landry and Conners missed three out of their previous four cuts leading up to TPC San Antonio. Conversely, Spieth was trending towards better play and needed some home cooking to capture his first win in four years.
For a full course preview, key statistics breakdown and additional players to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook, refer to the DraftKings Preview on DraftKings Playbook. Here are the bets we should be considering this week.
All betting odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Tony Finau to Win (+4000)
The consistency isn’t quite there for Finau, but recent sparks were ignited in Austin, as Finau made seven birdies against Xander Schauffele in Round 3, resulting in a 4&2 win. A third-place finish here back in 2017 and a runner-up finish at Colonial in 2019 prove the Finau can navigate Texas courses well, and at this number, you know I’m in.
Patton Kizzire to Win (+5500) | Top 5 (+1100)
Like Chris Kirk (+2500), Kizzire is someone we should consider in DFS and betting markets this week. He’s gained with his irons in seven of his previous eight tournaments and finished third at Colonial CC last season. A 22nd at The American Express and another 22nd at THE PLAYERS Championship are good signs that Kizzire has the game to play well this week, especially when he finished ninth in his debut here last season.
Doug Ghim to Win (+8000) | Top 5 (+1400) | Top 10 (+550)
A sixth at TPC Sawgrass earlier this month, coupled with seeing fellow Texas Longhorn Scottie Scheffler’s success, could boost Ghim’s confidence heading into this week. A 44th here last season was less to do with his ball-striking and everything to do with his putting: Ghim gained 9.1 strokes tee-to-green (seventh-highest), but lost 7.5 strokes on the greens (third-lowest). He was able to gain 1.3 on the greens at THE PLAYERS and handled the moment much better this year versus last season when he fell precipitously on Sunday. Ghim is also scoring on the par 5s this season, ranking sixth over the previous 24 rounds.
Beau Hossler to Win (+14000) | Top 5 (+2200) | Top 10 (+1000) | Top 20 (+500)
Sticking with the Longhorn theme, Hossler could be in line for another great week after a successful Florida Swing (sans THE PLAYERS Championship where he was on the unfortunate side of the draw). He held the 54-hole lead at Pebble Beach, but finished solo third with a 71 on Sunday. His finishes in Texas aren’t great, so derivative markets could be more appealing for Hossler. Still, his recent approach numbers indicate that he might’ve found something in his swing, and he’s historically been a great short-game player. Let’s hope the entire game comes together this week.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
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