Once again we have the Florida Panthers sitting at home as massive favorites (-425) against a team in Montreal who ranks third to last in shots on net per game. It’s always worth going down the Panthers’ lineup when we have these soft matchups to see if there are any player props out there worth taking on and Sam Reinhart, who has averaged 2.9 shots on net over his last 10 games, looks like a solid back today to go over 2.5 shots. He’s available at near plus-money and is still playing over 18 minutes a game, despite the acquisition of Claude Giroux.
The Flames are coming off a huge division win from last Saturday when they scored nine goals against the Oilers for a 9-5 win. Beating your province rivals is great, but the Flames also got exposed defensively in that start and now have the best team in the Western Conference coming to town. Some letdown today would not be shocking and Colorado being available at -105 on the Moneyline makes them an attractive target. The Avalanche beat Calgary 3-0 just a couple of weeks ago and with them set as underdogs today I’d not hesitate to go back to them.
Colorado Avalanche at Calgary Flames
Nathan MacKinnon ($9,000) — Mikko Rantanen ($6,800) — Valeri Nichushkin ($5,000)
Editor’s note: Avalanche C Nathan MacKinnon (upper body) has been ruled out for tonight’s game vs. the Flames.
As mentioned above, the Avalanche take on the Flames today on the road, and that could open up some opportunity for lower ownership on their top line. With Gabriel Landeskog still out, the Avalanche top-unit has become much easier to stack for daily fantasy hockey purposes as the price on Valeri Nichushkin remains extremely affordable. The Russian winger has been a big part of the Colorado top-six all season and has thrived at times playing alongside two superstars in Mikko Rantanen and
The true value today though is on Mikko Rantanen, who enters this matchup with 78 points in 63 games. The matchup with Calgary has seen his price plummet to his lowest point in over eight games. The winger has four goals in his last four games though and faces a Flames team who haven’t quite been as secure defensively of late (11 goals allowed in last three games) as they have been for most of the season.
This play today is all about upside and a lack of interest as few will likely want to pay up for the entire Avalanche first-line in a perceived bad spot. Colorado comes in off a close loss though and should be eager to put the Flames in their place today. Any big win by Colorado should see this line explode with a big night and that alone makes them worth backing at what should lower ownership levels than normal.
Superstar to Target
Kirill Kaprizov, Minnesota Wild vs. Philadelphia Flyers ($7,700)
While we certainly have to like Florida’s studs today—and can find lower ownership by paying up for teams like Colorado or Boston—the best combo of upside and matchup likely comes by way of Kirill Kaprizov. The Russian winger has been terrific of late, with four goals in his last three games and has exceeded the 20.0 point mark on DraftKings three times in his last six starts as well.
The Flyers remain a team that is just playing out the string for the rest of 2022 and have allowed the sixth-most quality scoring chances this season. The Wild are a strong 5v5 team and Kaprizov should get a ton of great chances today, bolstering his usual upside even more than normal. His shot rate has been excellent of late and he also comes in at his cheapest salary in over five games. Building around Kaprizov and this Wild offense is a great way to begin lineups.
Value on Offense
Cole Caufield, Montreal Canadiens at Florida Panthers ($3,700)
The Canadiens are in a tough spot today in terms of grabbing an actual win (they’re +320 underdogs) but that doesn’t mean their offense won’t provide us with a little fantasy goodness. Cole Caufield has been great for fantasy purposes of late, as the winger enters this game with 11 points over his last 10 games—and averaging 2.9 shots on net per game over that span as well. Despite the increased production, he’s seen his price dip in this matchup to well under $4,000, for the first time in over 10 games. Montreal has scored three or more goals in 11 of their last 13 games, so don’t be shocked if Caufield continues to produce and the Canadiens keep this game close.
Anders Lee, New York Islanders at Columbus Blue Jackets ($4,400)
The Islanders’ offense is in a great spot today against Columbus, who ranks second to last in the league in shots against and goals against. The Blue Jackets elevate all top-lines and that only makes the value we are getting with the red hot Anders Lee even more exceptional today. Lee heads into this game having scored seven points in his last four games, and 12 in his last 10 games, overall. Two of those recent points have come on the power-play, where New York has been more efficient of late. Another outburst today from Lee wouldn’t be shocking and he looks wholly undervalued given the matchup.
Jeremy Swayman, Boston Bruins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs ($7,900)
The Bruins enter this game against Toronto as just -135 home favorites, but they do seem to be getting discounted a bit. Boston has won seven of their last eight games and goaltender Jeremy Swayman has allowed just two goals in three of his last four starts. Swayman has been solid since returning to the main club’s roster around mid-season and certainly seems to have a bigger edge than the odds indicate today, especially against a Leafs team who has seen their own goalies tank of late (either due to injury or poor play).
The Bruins aren’t just beating cellar-dwellers either as their last win came against Tampa Bay just a couple of nights ago, and that kind of win should provide a younger goalie like Swayman with even more confidence going forward. He’s averaged 16.9 DKFP per start over his last 10 games and should see lower ownership in big field GPPs given the matchup with Toronto.
Value on Defense
Michael Del Zotto, Ottawa Senators at Nashville Predators ($3,600)
It seems strange to be even mentioning the name Michael Del Zotto for daily fantasy hockey purposes in the year 2022, but injuries have vaulted him up the depth chart in Ottawa of late. The veteran comes in having seen solid power-play exposure over his last few games and has produced five points in his last five games alone. Del Zotto has also been surprisingly efficient for fantasy purposes when he’s been on the ice and has averaged 3.2 blocked shots + shots on goal over that same span, despite seeing less than 20 minutes of ice in all five of those games.
With minute eater Thomas Chabot out for Ottawa, the opponent today seems almost irrelevant and the Senators’ offense has been picking up steam of late, having scored eight times over their last two games. Take the discount on Del Zotto, whose increased role has turned him into a small fantasy bargain and good punt target on defense.
Power Play Defensemen
Charlie McAvoy, Boston Bruins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs ($5,300)
The Bruins’ offense and special teams have been cooking of late. The Bruins come in having won seven of their last eight games and rank seventh in overall power-play efficiency on the season. They’re taking on a Leafs team today that has fallen off a cliff lately in terms of defensive rating and are still facing major talent issues in net.
Targeting the Bruins’ power-play today makes sense on multiple levels, but especially due to the fact that Charlie McAvoy is somehow available at just barely above $5,000. McAvoy has played over 24.0 minutes in three of his last four games and produced a power-play point in three of his last five outings. His solid power-play usage goes along with stout blocked shot + shot on goal production that has seen him average 4.7 per game in that category over his last 10 starts. Take the discount today and get some exposure to the Bruins’ stellar power-play with the underpriced and unappreciated McAvoy.
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